By measuring the public’s attitudes, pollsters want to seek the truth and display the people’s belief. Polling organizations are claiming to reflect the opinion of millions of people by asking only a representative cross section of society. Every current political, social or economical issue, that is the credo, can be evaluated by the people’s opinion. But besides their possible value as a description of the current state or as a prognostication tool, the question arises, if quantitative polls can be used not only as a politological or sociological but as a historical source. By analyzing works about American surveys in West Germany after World War Two, the Israeli-Palestinian relations during the Second Intifada and the influence of the American occupation on the emergence of Iraqi nationalism after the Second Gulf War, this paper wants to examine, if opinion polls can provide a relevant source for historians of international rela-tions.
Until the 1960s, historians had not begun to develop scientific procedures to study past public opinions. A long lasting debate was held whether or not public opinion polls could be applied to the interpretation of history. Still, opinion polls are only used sparingly in historiographical fields. But more and more historians have incorporated this “hostile” sociology into their work. The here presented works are a good example for the fact that there is pretty much influence by sociological aspects.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. The Usage of Public Opinion Polls in Historical Context
3. Case Studies: Merritt, Shamir, and Moaddel
4. Methodological Challenges and Limitations
5. Conclusion and Future Perspectives
Research Objectives and Key Topics
This paper examines the potential of public opinion polls as valid historical sources for the field of international relations, investigating whether quantitative survey data can transcend its sociological origin to provide insights into past political and historical developments.
- The historical validity of quantitative polling data.
- Case studies on West Germany (post-WWII), the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and post-Hussein Iraq.
- Methodological constraints and the skepticism of historians toward sociological methods.
- The relationship between public opinion and government decision-making processes.
- The potential for integrating polling data into future historiographical research.
Excerpt from the Book
The usage of public opinion polls within the field of international relations
By measuring the public’s attitudes, pollsters want to seek the truth and display the people’s belief. Polling organizations are claiming to reflect the opinion of millions of people by asking only a representative cross section of society. Every current political, social or economical issue, that is the credo, can be evaluated by the people’s opinion. But besides their possible value as a description of the current state or as a prognostication tool, the question arises, if quantitative polls can be used not only as a politological or sociological but as a historical source. By analyzing works about American surveys in West Germany after World War Two, the Israeli-Palestinian relations during the Second Intifada and the influence of the American occupation on the emergence of Iraqi nationalism after the Second Gulf War, this paper wants to examine, if opinion polls can provide a relevant source for historians of international relations.
Until the 1960s, historians had not begun to develop scientific procedures to study past public opinions. A long lasting debate was held whether or not public opinion polls could be applied to the interpretation of history. Still, opinion polls are only used sparingly in historiographical fields. But more and more historians have incorporated this “hostile” sociology into their work. The here presented works are a good example for the fact that there is pretty much influence by sociological aspects.
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: Outlines the scope of the paper and the central research question regarding the utility of opinion polls as historical source material.
2. The Usage of Public Opinion Polls in Historical Context: Discusses the historical development of polling and the initial academic debate regarding its integration into historical sciences.
3. Case Studies: Merritt, Shamir, and Moaddel: Analyzes specific historical contexts including HICOG surveys in West Germany, the Second Intifada, and post-war Iraq to demonstrate the practical application of poll data.
4. Methodological Challenges and Limitations: Addresses the critical perspectives on poll data, specifically sampling errors, authenticity concerns, and the "spiral of silence" theory.
5. Conclusion and Future Perspectives: Summarizes the potential for historians to utilize poll data more extensively to bridge the gap between sociology and historiography.
Keywords
Public opinion polls, historiography, international relations, HICOG surveys, Second Intifada, Iraqi nationalism, sociological research, quantitative data, historical sources, political attitudes, democratization, representative sampling, cross-sectional analysis, historical methodology, survey analysis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary focus of this work?
The paper explores whether and how quantitative public opinion polls, typically used in sociology and political science, can be effectively utilized by historians as primary source material to study international relations.
What are the central thematic fields covered?
The research covers the history of opinion polling, the intersection of sociology and historiography, and specific geopolitical case studies involving West Germany, the Middle East, and Iraq.
What is the core research question?
The central question is whether opinion polls can provide a relevant, reliable, and independent source for historians to understand past political developments and public attitudes in international contexts.
Which scientific methods are applied in the paper?
The paper employs a comparative analysis of existing historiographical works and specific survey data sets to evaluate the methodological benefits and limitations of using poll data in historical research.
What does the main body address?
It provides an in-depth review of three major case studies, analyzes the challenges of survey validity, and discusses the skepticism surrounding the use of "hostile" sociological data in historical analysis.
Which keywords best describe this research?
Key terms include historiography, international relations, opinion polling, quantitative historical data, and political sociology.
How do Merritt and Merritt approach the HICOG surveys?
They utilize the HICOG data to track the transition of West German public sentiment from Nazi-era ideology toward democratic values and acceptance of new political institutions between 1949 and 1955.
What role did opinion polls play during the Second Intifada according to Shamir and Shikaki?
The authors demonstrate that polls served as a critical "domestic imperative" that forced political leaders to balance international negotiations with pressure from their own populations.
What is the "spiral of silence" and why is it relevant here?
The "spiral of silence," a concept by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann, suggests that people may hide their true opinions if they feel they are in the minority, which challenges the authenticity and validity of poll data for historians.
- Arbeit zitieren
- Bachelor of Arts Christopher Reichow (Autor:in), 2010, The usage of public opinion polls within the field of international relations, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.hausarbeiten.de/document/179626
