German newsletter articles in 2018 fanned fear in many employees with headlines like „Siri, machst du uns bald alle arbeitslos?“ (Kramer, 2018) or „Wird jeder Zehnte arbeitslos?“ (Rudzio, 2018). The worry over joblessness due to industrialisation is not a new occurrence. Although vast technical and industrial development should be pursued recklessly in order to make bigger profits that should increase wealth for all, there have been movements against this development throughout history. Reasons for these dissenting voices can be for example: social, ecological or even economic to maintain the status quo. The destruction of mechanical looms from 1811 by Ned Ludd and his followers show, how people have been aware of the effects of technology on employment.
Even though there are a plenty of reasons to work against an industrial revolution, e.g. pollution or change of the environment, a lot of them are rooted in a fear of unemployment. It has been shown, that unemployment leads to an increase of criminality, decreases mental and physical health and has a negative impact on individual happiness. If the assumption that about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk, is correct, employments and therefore society is facing a massive disruption.
This assignment is focused on social and macroeconomic outcomes from the latest technological trend, and highly discussed topic in media: Artificial Intelligence based Automation. Following the introduction it is primarily discussed, which kinds of jobs are potentially threatened by automation. Second, this assignment illustrate the economic problems arising with automation. The third part is a brief summarisation of approaches on how to cope with the problems caused by automation in the near future.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Which jobs are automatable and why?
3. Possible economic problems of automation
4. Solution approaches to the arising problems of automation
5. Conclusion
Research Goals & Topics
This assignment examines the social and macroeconomic consequences of rapid technological progress, specifically focusing on artificial intelligence and robotics. It investigates the potential for job displacement across various sectors, analyzes the economic challenges associated with automation, and explores potential policy strategies to mitigate these impacts on the workforce and society.
- Analysis of job categories susceptible to automation
- Economic implications of widespread machine-led labor
- Educational and regulatory policy approaches to automation
- Societal impacts including income inequality and well-being
Excerpt from the Book
2. Which jobs are automatable and why?
Autor, Levy and Murnane (2003) argue that computers can be programmed to follow a certain set of rules to substitute human activities.
"A task is ‘routine‘ if it can be accomplished by machines following explicit programmed rules. Many manual tasks that workers used to perform, such as monitoring the temperature of a steel finishing line or moving a windshield into place on an assembly line, fit this description. Because these tasks require methodical repetition of an unwavering procedure, they can be exhaustively specified with programmed instructions and performed by machines.“ (Autor et al., 2003, p. 1283)
These findings are in line with those by Goos, Manning and Salomons (2009, p. 16) who define routine tasks as "[…] those which computers can perform with relative ease, such as jobs that require the input of repetitive physical strength or motion, as well as jobs requiring repetitive and non-complex cognitive skills.“ Autor et al. (2003) assumed it would be easier for a computer to substitute routine tasks than non-routine tasks. Even though the study is already 15 years old the author’s assumption is still correct: Every program, including Artificial Intelligences, need some sort of an input to start working. This input has to be given by an operator who has to have an idea of what kind of task the computer should be performing (Brynjolfsson & McAfee, 2011, p. 48). Since Machine Learning Algorithms need a lot of data, that was simply not utilisable until the past few years, computerisation was used to fulfil routine tasks that can be described by a finite set of rules (Autor & Dorn, 2012). In order to be efficient it only made sense to write a program to fulfil a repetitive task so the computer can outplay a human. Following this logic and the stated definitions of Autor et al. (2003) and Goos et al. (2009) leads to the assumption: As soon it is possible to automate every part of a certain job, this job will become obsolete, if the automation process is cheaper.
Summary of Chapters
1. Introduction: Outlines the historical context of industrialization fears and defines the scope of the assignment regarding the socio-economic impacts of artificial intelligence.
2. Which jobs are automatable and why?: Examines the criteria for routine tasks and how Machine Learning expands the scope of automation into non-routine cognitive fields.
3. Possible economic problems of automation: Analyzes the dual effects of technological progress on employment and discusses the growing challenges for low-skilled and high-skilled labor alike.
4. Solution approaches to the arising problems of automation: Reviews policy recommendations like educational investment and basic income to address inequality caused by labor displacement.
5. Conclusion: Synthesizes the findings, noting that while machines excel at rule-based tasks, human tacit knowledge remains a significant bottleneck according to Polanyi's paradox.
Keywords
Automation, Artificial Intelligence, Labour Market, Machine Learning, Robotics, Technological Unemployment, Economic Inequality, Digitalisation, Basic Income, Routine Tasks, Polanyi’s Paradox, Human Capital, Job Displacement, Macroeconomics, Skills.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary focus of this assignment?
The assignment explores the future of labor in the era of artificial intelligence and robotics, specifically analyzing how these technologies threaten current employment structures and what consequences this has for society.
What are the central thematic fields addressed?
The central themes include the mechanics of job automation, the macroeconomic consequences of technological unemployment, income inequality, and potential political or societal solutions such as basic income and educational reform.
What is the primary research question?
The work investigates the extent to which automation and AI will lead to mass unemployment and how society can mitigate the negative impacts of this technological disruption.
Which scientific methods were utilized?
The author employs a comprehensive literature review and meta-analysis of existing academic research and economic papers to compare different perspectives on the future of labor.
What is covered in the main section of the paper?
The main sections discuss the definition of automatable tasks, the economic arguments for and against massive job loss, and specific strategies like infrastructure investment and tax reform to adapt to these changes.
Which keywords best characterize this work?
Key concepts include Artificial Intelligence, Automation, Labour Market, Technological Unemployment, and Polanyi’s Paradox.
What does the author mean by "Polanyi’s Paradox" in this context?
It refers to the observation that humans often know more than they can explain, which acts as a barrier to programming machines to replicate tasks that humans perform intuitively.
How does the author evaluate the "basic income" approach?
The author views it as a potential solution to mitigate income inequality caused by automation, but notes that it does not solve the fundamental issue of loss of purpose and well-being associated with mass unemployment.
- Arbeit zitieren
- Patrick Schneider (Autor:in), 2018, "They'll take our jobs". The future of labour in the light of automation due to artificial intelligence and robotics, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.hausarbeiten.de/document/438603
