A secure, affordable and reliable energy supply remains to be highly significant to economic stability, as well as development in the world. Notably, the challenges posed by climate change and the elevating energy demands alongside the erosion of energy security of the developing societies have amounted to high challenges for energy policy makers. It is evident that the current global energy system sits at the nexus of different dilemmas, which include the development dilemma that refers to prosperity versus poverty, the industrialization dilemma of growth versus the environment and the trust dilemma referring to globalization versus security.
Therefore, this paper describes the long-term forecast of energy supply and demand in the world, the future of the primary energy supply such as oil, gas, coal, nuclear and sustainable energy, alongside outlining the future of energy demands in the BRICs and OECD countries.
Over the years, strains have always been evident in the global energy system, but nowadays, it has been noted that these tensions are becoming more severe. The modern energy system has several lethargies due to its complexity along with scale. Therefore, it is evident that the extensive timescales that are required for planning as well as constructing new energy infrastructure imply that the tensions within this system may not be resolved quickly or easily.
In this sense, major changes in the global energy system are expected to be apparent after a significant number of years. Experts have described different scenarios to identify such changes, considering the plausible relationships between distinct possibilities and perspectives. Remarkably, these scenarios have helped in the preparation, shaping and thriving in a reality that is expected to unfold eventually. For example, the use of scramble and blueprint scenarios can be a major step in the development of the global energy system in fifty years to come, although they are both challenging outlooks.
Table of Contents
Introduction
The Long-Term Forecast of Energy Supply And Demand in the World
The Future of Primary Energy Supply
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear Power
Sustainable Resources
The Future of Energy Demand in BRICs and OECD Countries
Conclusion
Research Objectives and Core Themes
This paper aims to provide a comprehensive long-term forecast for global energy supply and demand up to the year 2050, examining how various primary energy sources and evolving technologies can address the complex dilemmas of economic development and environmental sustainability.
- Analysis of future trends in primary energy supply including oil, gas, coal, and nuclear power.
- Evaluation of the role of sustainable and renewable energy resources in global generation.
- Investigation into the impact of climate change mitigation strategies on energy infrastructure.
- Comparison of energy demand shifts between BRICs and OECD nations.
- Assessment of scenario planning as a tool for overcoming long-term uncertainty in energy policy.
Excerpt from the Book
The Long-Term Forecast of Energy Supply And Demand in the World
The analysis of the intersection between mitigation of climate change issues and energy requires an adoption of long-term perspectives. The infrastructure of energy takes time to upsurge and contains crucial life that is measured in decades in some plants. The development of new energy technologies also takes time, and even much time before reaching their maximum market share (IEA, 2012). Increased human-induced concentration of green-house gases adversely affects the global climate and ecosystems over a long period. Therefore, policy makers and analysts who seek to tackle environmental and energy issues are required to look ahead at least to the next 30-50 years. However, since the future is unpredictable and unknown, this long-term perspective has to come to terms with uncertainty concept and people’s knowledge limitations (IEA, 2003). Thus, the future has to be looked at in an articulated fashion, not relying on the assumptions that the trends present today will continue in the future.
Significantly, the future can, thus, be explored and determined through scenarios. The examination of an internally continual and coherent chain of events and trends, which may follow from current actions, helps in forming a better assessment of alternative policies (scenario planning) (IEA, 2003). Therefore, the most important underlying factors that drive an energy or environment system over periods of 30-50 years include social structures, technological advancements, environmental values and even openness of markets.
Summary of Chapters
Introduction: Outlines the fundamental global energy dilemmas, including the balance between economic prosperity, industrial growth, and environmental security, while justifying the need for long-term scenario planning.
The Long-Term Forecast of Energy Supply And Demand in the World: Discusses the necessity of 30-50 year planning horizons to manage infrastructure development and climate change mitigation while navigating inherent uncertainties.
The Future of Primary Energy Supply: Examines the potential trajectory of various energy sources, focusing on the robustness of natural gas, the transition of coal through carbon capture, the safety advancements in nuclear power, and the expansion of renewables.
Natural Gas: Highlights the role of gas in electricity generation as a relatively cleaner alternative to coal and addresses the importance of gas-fired power station efficiency.
Coal: Evaluates the future of coal demand, emphasizing the critical importance of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies to align with climate goals.
Nuclear Power: Discusses the transition toward Generation IV reactors to improve safety and economic viability while addressing public concerns regarding waste and proliferation.
Sustainable Resources: Details the growing contribution of hydropower, wind, and biomass, noting the decreasing costs and technical advancements required for wider adoption.
The Future of Energy Demand in BRICs and OECD Countries: Analyzes the shift in consumption patterns, predicting that most growth will occur in developing nations while emphasizing the need for technology transfer from OECD countries.
Conclusion: Synthesizes the core argument that effective technology deployment and strategic policy are essential to meet the rising global energy demand sustainably.
Keywords
Global Energy, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Scenario Planning, Natural Gas, Coal, Nuclear Power, Sustainable Resources, Renewables, Carbon Capture and Storage, Energy Demand, BRICs, OECD, Energy Security, Sustainability.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary focus of this publication?
The work provides a long-term outlook on global energy supply and demand, analyzing how the world can meet rising energy needs by 2050 while balancing environmental and economic pressures.
Which specific energy sources are analyzed?
The paper covers the future outlook for primary energy sources, specifically natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and sustainable renewable resources like wind, solar, and hydropower.
What is the central research question?
The study aims to determine how global energy systems can be transformed through effective technology and policy to ensure secure and sustainable energy supplies in the face of long-term climate and development challenges.
What scientific methods are utilized to form these forecasts?
The author relies on scenario planning—specifically analyzing internally coherent chains of events and technological pathways—to explore plausible future world configurations rather than relying on static business-as-usual assumptions.
What are the key topics covered in the main section?
The main part of the book addresses the feasibility of CCS for coal, the transition to Generation IV nuclear reactors, the cost-efficiency of renewable energy, and the divergence in energy demand between developed and developing economies.
Which keywords best describe this study?
The core themes are characterized by keywords such as energy security, climate change mitigation, carbon capture, renewable energy adoption, and the global shift in energy consumption toward developing nations.
Why is the 30-50 year timeframe considered critical?
The author argues that energy infrastructure and technology development require extensive planning timescales, and that policy makers must look beyond immediate trends to address the environmental and structural inertia of the current global energy system.
How do the BRICs and OECD countries differ in the energy demand forecast?
The study notes that while demand is rising rapidly in BRICs due to economic growth, OECD nations are seeing a relative shift in the type of energy consumed, leading to a global transformation where developing nations will account for a larger share of energy consumption by 2050.
- Arbeit zitieren
- Caroline Mutuku (Autor:in), 2018, Venturing a Long-Term Forecast of Energy Supply and Demand around the World in 2050, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.hausarbeiten.de/document/429858
