Marine products industry alone has a share of at least 6 per cent in world exports in which India is the fourth largest exporting country after China, Peru and Japan. In fact, out of 7.85 million tonnes (mt) of overall fish production of India, roughly 43 per cent is contributed by the marine sector though it turns out to be less than half to that of India’s major competitors in fish trade. Marine products exports play a pivotal role in Indian economy in terms of employment and income generation besides valuable foreign exchange earnings. They have created a huge demand in international trade and are acclaimed to be one of the fastest moving commodities in the world food market.
China, Thailand, Vietnam, Chile, Taiwan, Indonesia, India, Peru and South Korea are the main sea-food exporters comprising more than 60 per cent of trade value of marine products. In general, 38 per cent (live weight equivalent) of total fisheries product is traded internationally. But with only 20 per cent of its total fish production entering world trade, Indian seafood exports are far below than the global average.
Fortunately, India’s vast coastline of 8,129 km stretching almost two-thirds of the country and encompassing an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of more than 2.2 million sq. km. offers sufficient surplus of fish and fishery products, which is currently under-exploited. As of 2015-16, marine products with export earnings crossing Rs. 30,420 crores constituted 21 per cent of the total agricultural exports from India which in turn was 1.2 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP) and 4.72 per cent of its Agri-GDP.
Table of Contents
Introduction
Review of Literature
Methodology and data sources
Analytical tools
Compound growth rate
Instability Analysis
Markov Chain Approach
Goodness of fit test
Prediction of exports from India
Results and Discussion
Possible factors for growth erosion
Market-wise instability
Commodity-wise growth
Commodity-wise instability
Trade composition
Destination of trade
Direction of trade
Export market projections
Conclusion
Recommendation for policy makers
References
Research Objectives and Topics
This study aims to analyze the export performance of Indian marine products by examining growth patterns, trade variability, and structural changes in trade direction, while also forecasting future export trends in the context of the WTO regime.
- Growth analysis of fresh and dried marine product exports.
- Measurement of export variability and computation of instability indices.
- Assessment of structural changes in trade destination and composition.
- Application of the Markov Chain approach for future market projections.
Excerpt from the Publication
Possible factors for growth erosion
With the implementation of recommendations of Uruguay Round of WTO, the application of Sanitary and Phyto-sanitary (SPS) measures and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) assumed prominence in world trade and seafood trade was no exception. As a result, a decline in value share can be noticed in Japan, India’s most traditional marine trade partner (Table 1). This decline in trans-WTO and post-WTO phases is a result of both quantity decline and unit value decline as the Indian exporters lose out in the competition from South East Asian countries on quality and value addition sensitivity (Kamat and Kamat, 2007). In fact, there were outright rejections of Indian consignments in Europe, citing the presence of Salmonella (Devaraj, 2007). Exports to China which were negligible in the pre-WTO phase started picking up with the exports of low frozen fishes such as ribbon fish and mackerels in the late 2000s. But China cannot be considered as a trusted partner as after 2005 there was continuous erosion in its import quantities (-15.13 %) leading to subsequent decline in trade value (-3.69 %). At the same time, the growth in export price was the highest in China (13.49 %) in the post-WTO phase indicates China’s increasing preference for value-added marine products from India instead of mere trading in quantities. Another reason for dip in export growth in European Union, Other countries and overall trade may be due to decline in world marine products trade by 37 per cent as a result of global economic crisis of 2008-09 (Ancy and Raju, 2016).
Summary of Chapters
Introduction: Outlines the significance of the marine sector in India's economy and its position within global trade under WTO regulations.
Review of Literature: Surveys past studies on liberalization policies, technological advancements, and the challenges faced by the Indian seafood industry.
Methodology and data sources: Defines the study period into pre-WTO, transition-WTO, and post-WTO phases, detailing data collection from MPEDA.
Analytical tools: Describes the mathematical frameworks used, including compound growth rates, Cuddy-Della Valle indices, and Markov Chain models.
Prediction of exports from India: Explains the forecasting methodology applied to predict marine exports for the period 2016-17 to 2019-20.
Results and Discussion: Analyzes the market-wise growth, instability factors, and commodity-specific performance across different trade regimes.
Trade composition: Examines the shift in export products from traditional dried items to modern frozen and value-added marine products.
Export market projections: Presents the findings regarding expected export shares to major trading partners based on historical transitional probability matrices.
Conclusion: Synthesizes the findings, highlighting the necessity for value-addition and strategic market diversification to ensure future growth.
Recommendation for policy makers: Proposes the creation of an export stabilization fund and emphasizes the need for long-term contracts and multilateral negotiations.
References: Lists the academic and official sources consulted for the study.
Keywords
Marine Products, Export Performance, WTO, India, Compound Growth Rate, Instability Index, Markov Chain, Trade Direction, Frozen Shrimp, Commodity-wise Growth, Fisheries Economics, Market Projection, Value Addition, SPS Measures, Trade Composition.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary focus of this research?
The research focuses on the export performance of Indian marine products, specifically analyzing trends, growth rates, and structural changes in trade destinations before and after the implementation of WTO regulations.
What are the central themes discussed?
The themes include the impact of WTO on export growth, the shift in trade composition towards high-value products, and the volatility or instability in international markets for Indian seafood.
What is the core objective of the study?
The core objective is to ascertain growth patterns, measure export variability, analyze direction of trade using transition matrices, and predict future export volumes for major importing countries.
Which scientific methods are utilized in this work?
The study employs the Compound Growth Rate (CGR) model, the Cuddy-Della Valle (CDV) index for instability, and the Markov Chain approach to model transitional probabilities of trade directions.
What content is covered in the main section of the paper?
The main section covers detailed market-wise and commodity-wise growth analysis, trade composition changes, destination patterns, and quantitative projections for future exports.
Which keywords best characterize the study?
Key terms include marine products, export performance, WTO, Markov Chain, instability index, and trade composition.
How has the Indian marine export landscape changed post-WTO?
Post-WTO, the industry moved toward product diversification, but faced challenges regarding stringent Sanitary and Phyto-sanitary (SPS) measures and increased competition, leading to higher price instability for certain products like shrimp.
What role does the Markov Chain approach play in the projections?
The Markov Chain approach is used to create a transitional probability matrix that estimates the likelihood of Indian exports switching between different trading countries, which then serves as a basis for forecasting future export volumes.
What specific recommendations are made for policymakers?
The authors recommend establishing an export stabilization fund to mitigate price risks, fostering value-added product development, and strengthening multilateral negotiation strategies to address trade barriers.
- Arbeit zitieren
- Swaminathan Balasubramaniam (Autor:in), V. D. Tarpara (Autor:in), M. G. Dhandhalya (Autor:in), 2017, Export Performance of Marine Products from India, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.hausarbeiten.de/document/424798
