Since tropical cyclones(TCs) are one of the major geophysical cause of loss of life and property, it is important to understand if there is any change in the frequency and intensity of TCs due to anthropogenic climate change.
IPCC considers 0.25-0.5 C increase in warming over tropical oceans over the past few decades due to increase in greenhouse gas concentration over past 50years.
During 6th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, a statement was released on the connection between the TCs and anthropogenic climate change. The statement was in response to the increase in number of recent high-impact TC events which includes, 10 land falling Tcs in Japan in 2004, 5 TCs affecting the Cook island in a five week period during 2005, cyclone Gafilo in Madagascar in 2004, cyclone Larry in Australia in 2006, typhoon Saomai in China in 2006, and violently active Atlantic TC season during the period of 2004 to 2005, including the catastrophic socioeconomic impact of Hurricane Katrina. A few recent articles [1] have noted a large increase in TC’s intensity, frequency and wind-speeds in some regions during past 5 decades, which could be attributed to the increase in the concentration of green house gases in past 50years. However, other studies explain this noticed increase as a result of better observations made and instruments used, making it easier to detect TCs.
Consensus statement by the International workshop on TC-6 reported uncertain conclusions about the influence of climate change on TC after taking into account evidence both for and against.
It was concluded that no TC could be solely attributed to the anthropogenic climate change. Model and theory predicts 3-5% increase in wind speed per degree C increase in SST. But, there is inconsistency between the small change in wind speed projected by theory and modelling versus large variations reported by some observational studies. Significant limitation of measurements over some regions make detection of trends difficult. It was suggested that if increase in SST continues, susceptibility to TC storm surge flooding would strengthen.
Table of Contents
1. Inroduction
2. Main Part
3. Conclusions
4. Effect of Climate change on tropical cyclones over Indian ocean
5. Conclusions
Objectives and Topics
This paper examines the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones globally. It reviews existing scientific literature and models to determine if rising sea surface temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations correlate with measurable changes in cyclone behavior, while addressing regional variances.
- Impact of greenhouse gas concentration on tropical cyclone intensity
- Correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and power dissipation indices
- Regional variations in cyclone response across different ocean basins
- Evaluation of climate models and observational data inconsistencies
- Analysis of intense hurricane trends and potential future projections
Excerpt from the book
Inroduction:
Since tropical cyclones(TCs) are one of the major geophysical cause of loss of life and property, it is important to understand if there is any change in the frequency and intensity of TCs due to anthropogenic climate change. IPCC considers 0.25-0.5 C increase in warming over tropical oceans over the past few decades due to increase in greenhouse gas concentration over past 50years. During 6th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, a statement was released on the connection between the TCs and anthropogenic climate change. The statement was in response to the increase in number of recent high-impact TC events which includes, 10 land falling Tcs in Japan in 2004, 5 TCs affecting the Cook island in a five week period during 2005, cyclone Gafilo in Madagascar in 2004, cyclone Larry in Australia in 2006, typhoon Saomai in China in 2006, and violently active Atlantic TC season during the period of 2004 to 2005, including the catastrophic socio-economic impact of Hurricane Katrina. A few recent articles [1] have noted a large increase in TC’s intensity, frequency and wind-speeds in some regions during past 5 decades, which could be attributed to the increase in the concentration of green house gases in past 50years. However, other studies explain this noticed increase as a result of better observations made and instruments used, making it easier to detect TCs. Consensus statement by the International workshop on TC-6 reported uncertain conclusions about the influence of climate change on TC after taking into account evidence both for and against.
Summary of Chapters
Inroduction: Discusses the motivation for studying tropical cyclones in the context of climate change and highlights recent high-impact weather events.
Main Part: Reviews various scientific studies, including Emanuel's power dissipation index and IPCC findings, to correlate sea surface temperatures with storm intensity.
Conclusions: Summarizes that while intense tropical cyclones may increase in future, there is a projected decrease in their overall frequency.
Effect of Climate change on tropical cyclones over Indian ocean: Analyzes the specific vulnerabilities and historical trends of cyclone activity in the Indian Ocean region.
Conclusions: Concludes that global ocean basins respond differently to climate change due to their unique geographical and thermal characteristics.
Keywords
Tropical Cyclones, Climate Change, Sea Surface Temperature, Anthropogenic Warming, Power Dissipation Index, Hurricane Intensity, Greenhouse Gases, Precipitation, Indian Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, Climate Modeling, Cyclone Frequency, Storm Surge, Meteorological Observations, Geophysical Events
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this research paper?
The paper primarily investigates the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency as well as intensity of tropical cyclones globally.
What are the primary thematic areas covered?
Key areas include the correlation between rising sea surface temperatures, greenhouse gas concentrations, and their measurable effects on storm development across different global ocean basins.
What is the main research question or objective?
The objective is to determine if historical changes in cyclone intensity and frequency can be scientifically attributed to anthropogenic climate change or if they are influenced by observational improvements.
Which scientific methods are employed?
The study relies on a comprehensive literature review, synthesis of global climate models (GCMs), and analysis of observational meteorological data and historical trends.
What is covered in the main body of the text?
The main part reviews empirical research, theoretical models—such as the Carnot cycle and Power Dissipation Index (PDI)—and examines how different regions like the Atlantic and Indian Ocean respond to thermal changes.
Which keywords best characterize this study?
Essential keywords include Tropical Cyclones, Climate Change, SST, PDI, Anthropogenic Warming, and Cyclone Intensity.
Does the paper conclude that climate change increases cyclone frequency?
No, the paper notes that while intensity is expected to rise, there is actually a projected decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones.
Why is the Indian Ocean specifically highlighted in the research?
The Indian Ocean is highlighted due to its dense coastal population, high vulnerability to extreme weather events, and specific surface warming trends that differ from other ocean basins.
What is the significance of the "Power Dissipation Index" mentioned?
The index serves as a metric to measure the destructive potential of a cyclone based on its intensity and lifetime, showing a marked increase since the mid-1970s.
- Quote paper
- PhD Kopal Arora (Author), 2011, A Literature Review: Effect of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.hausarbeiten.de/document/274134
