The prefeasibility study at hand proposes to integrate driverless vehicles in commercial carsharing schemes in Germany. It finds indications that carsharing has the potential to become a significant mode of transport because it responds to social and business change. On the other hand, the study shows that it is the human component in traffic causing the majority of accidents, which is why driverless vehicles are expected to reduce traffic accidents and improve road safety. By making use of the business management tools SWOT analysis and an ad hoc STEPLED analysis, the study conducts a micro-environmental and macro-environmental analysis of the German carmakers BMW and Daimler in regard to the proposed concept. The main finding is that the technology is generally expected to be marketable within the next two decades, if not much earlier. It can be expected that customers will accept driverless vehicle technologies and that many new target groups could be reached by the realisation of the concept. Carmakers should benefit from this potential and might be able to offset possible losses in their core business. The analysis does also show, however, that the current legislation poses several obstacles and might, if unchanged, delay the introduction of driverless vehicle technologies. It is recommended for carmakers to become active and start a public debate similar to the one in the United States. Moreover, it is recommended to collaborate closely with other mobility providers in order to avoid lobbying against the idea.
Table of Contents
Introduction
0.1 Overview
0.2 Definitions
0.3 Structure of the Study
0.4 Rationale
0.5 Case Study: Germany
0.6 Aim and Objectives
0.7 Methodology
0.8 Limitations
Part 1: Carsharing
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Background
1.3 Social and Business Change regarding Mobility
1.3.1 From “Generation Golf” to “Generation Hire Car”
1.3.2 From Carmaker to Mobility Provider
1.3.3 Sustainability Concerns
1.4 Carsharing as a Response to Social Change
1.4.1 Generation Hire Car
1.4.2 Carmaker or Mobility Provider
1.4.3 Sustainability Concerns
1.5 Limitations of Carsharing
1.5.1 Parking
1.5.2 Availability
Part 2: Driverless Vehicles
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Background
2.3 Social Issue Traffic Accidents
2.3.1 Background
2.3.2 The Role of the Driver in Car-related Traffic Accidents
2.3.3 Traffic Accidents in Germany
2.3.4 Economic Costs of Traffic Accidents
2.4 Automation in Passenger Vehicles as a Response to Traffic Accidents
2.4.1 Driver Assistance Systems
2.4.2 Advanced Driver Assistance Systems
2.4.3 Car Drivers, Customers, and Advanced Driver Assistant Systems
2.5 Fully-Automated Vehicles
Part 3: Prefeasibility Study
3.1 Introduction
3.2 The Concept
3.3 Micro-Environmental Analysis: SWOT
3.3.1 Strengths
3.3.2 Weaknesses
3.3.3 Opportunities
3.3.4 Threats
3.4 Macro-Environmental Analysis: STEPLED
3.4.1 Society
3.4.2 Technology
3.4.3 Environment
3.4.4 Politics
3.4.5 Legislation
3.4.6 Ethics
3.4.7 Demographics
Research Goals and Key Topics
The primary aim of this dissertation is to evaluate the prefeasibility of integrating driverless vehicle technology into existing commercial carsharing schemes in Germany. It explores whether this synergy can mitigate current mobility challenges such as traffic density and parking limitations, while offering a strategic business path for established carmakers transitioning to mobility providers.
- Impact of societal and business changes on individual mobility patterns.
- Technological development status and market potential of driverless vehicles.
- Analysis of traffic accidents as a primary societal issue and role of driver behavior.
- Strategic micro-environmental analysis (SWOT) for automotive companies.
- Macro-environmental analysis (STEPLED) of the German market context.
Excerpt from the Book
1.3.1 From “Generation Golf” to “Generation Hire Car”
Although some studies have shown that the vast majority of young people enjoys driving (Progrenium, 2010 [online]; Steiler, 2012 [online]), Robert Schönduwe (2011 [online]) from the Goethe University Frankfurt am Main claims that the young generation is fundamentally changing: the Generation Golf, a concept termed by Florian Illies to describe how young people gained mobility and flexibility due to cheap and affordable cars such as the VW Golf that had become status symbols at the turn of the millennium, may become the Generation Hire Car, which refers to the book by Michael Adler that was released eleven years after Florian Illies’ book in 2011 and describes how the young generation opts for mobility as opposed to cars as status symbols.
Indeed, Ballweg and Ebbing, 2011 [online]) suggest that the old maxim ‘one driving licence, one car’ does not seem to be true anymore. According to the youth study Timescout, 75% of young people have a driving licence but only 45% possess an own car (Lamparter, 2010 [online]). While a study of the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA, Federal Office for Motor Traffic) (KBA, 2012a [online]) indicates that the numbers of young people acquiring a driving licence seems to have decreased, the Center of Automotive at the University of Bergisch Gladbach found that 31% without a car still enjoy access to one (Bratzel, 2011 [online]). The same study, however, also found that the number of 18-24 year-olds who are living in urban areas and have no access to a car, increased from 21% to 33% within five years (Bratzel, 2011 [online]). Another study of a German mobility panel (Das Deutsche Mobilitätspanel, 2011 [online]), shows that that the group of people aged 18-35, who hold a driving licence and have a car at their disposal, has declined from 84.2% in 2000 to 67.5% in 2010, while figures for those holding a driving licence but who possess no car increased from 7.1% to 19.3% in the same period.
Summary of Chapters
Introduction: Provides the foundation for the study, covering demographic shifts, the rationale for the proposed mobility concept, and the methodology used to analyze carsharing and driverless technology.
Part 1: Carsharing: Examines the development of carsharing in Germany, highlighting the shift toward commercial schemes, their role in responding to social changes, and the inherent limitations regarding parking and vehicle availability.
Part 2: Driverless Vehicles: Analyzes the societal issue of traffic accidents and the role of driver behavior, followed by an overview of automation technologies (ADAS) and the developmental trajectory toward fully-automated driving.
Part 3: Prefeasibility Study: Applies SWOT and STEPLED frameworks to evaluate the business feasibility and macro-environmental impact of integrating driverless vehicles into commercial carsharing operations in Germany.
Keywords
Carsharing, Driverless Vehicles, Autonomous Vehicles, Germany, Mobility Provider, Traffic Safety, SWOT Analysis, STEPLED Analysis, Automotive Industry, Digital Mobility, Generation Hire Car, Sustainable Development, Smart Mobility, Transport Policy, Consumer Behavior.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this dissertation?
The paper focuses on the potential integration of autonomous, driverless vehicle technology into existing commercial carsharing schemes within the German market.
What are the primary thematic areas covered?
The study covers the transformation of the automotive industry, shifting mobility behaviors among the younger generation, traffic safety statistics, and the macro-environmental factors influencing the adoption of new transport technologies.
What is the ultimate research goal?
The goal is to determine if the proposed integration of driverless cars into carsharing is a feasible and profitable solution to mitigate urban traffic congestion, parking issues, and accident rates.
Which scientific methods are utilized?
The research uses a prefeasibility study approach, employing SWOT analysis for micro-level strategic assessment and an ad hoc STEPLED analysis for evaluating macro-environmental factors.
What topics are discussed in the main body of the work?
The work discusses the transition from private car ownership to shared mobility, the role of human error in accidents, current and future driver assistance systems, and the legal and ethical challenges of autonomous driving.
Which keywords define this research?
The work is characterized by terms such as Carsharing, Driverless Vehicles, Germany, Mobility Provider, Traffic Safety, and sustainable transport development.
Why is the German market used as a specific case study?
Germany is chosen as the case study because it is home to global automotive market leaders, has a highly developed automotive industry, and exhibits the necessary economic and political conditions to test and refine smart mobility solutions.
What role does the legislative framework play in the proposed concept?
Legislation is identified as a major obstacle, specifically concerning the UN Convention on Road Traffic, which assumes a human driver must be in control at all times, thereby creating significant product liability risks for manufacturers.
What is the significance of the "Generation Hire Car" concept?
This term describes a cultural shift where young people prioritize flexible access to mobility over the status symbol of owning an automobile, which is a fundamental driver for the demand for carsharing services.
- Arbeit zitieren
- Anonym (Autor:in), 2012, The Integration of Driverless Vehicles in Commercial Carsharing Schemes in Germany, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.hausarbeiten.de/document/209818
