This paper investigates the effect of an exogenous demographic transition on democracy. As
possible channels through which this influence makes an impact, education and per capita
income and, to a lesser degree, urbanization were identified. These interdependencies were tested
using pooled ordinary least squares as well as fixed effects models on the basis of panel data. In
conclusion, the demographic transition affects democracy through the aforementioned channels
primarily in poor countries that have experienced their demographic transition and subsequent
democratization in the second half of the 20th century or later.
Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION
2. MOTIVATING THEORY
2.1. THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
2.2. DEMOCRACY
2.3. INTERDEPENDENCIES BETWEEN THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND DEMOCRACY
2.3.1. EDUCATION
2.3.2. URBANIZATION
2.3.3. WOMEN’S EMPOWERMENT
2.3.4. ECONOMIC GROWTH
3. DATA AND DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
3.1. DATA
3.1.1. DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
3.1.2. DATA ON DEMOCRACY
3.1.3. OTHER DATA
3.2. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
4.1. OLS MODEL
4.1.1. METHODOLOGY
4.1.2. ANALYSIS
4.2. COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS
4.2.1. METHODOLOGY
4.2.2. ANALYSIS
4.3. ROBUSTNESS CHECK
4.3.1. YEAR FIXED EFFECTS
4.3.2. INTERACTIONS WITH INCOME
4.3.3. TIME OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
4.4. HOW THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AFFECTS DEMOCRACY
4.4.1. LIFE EXPECTANCY AND BIRTH RATES
4.4.2. CHANNEL ANALYSIS
5. LIMITATIONS
6. CONCLUSION
Research Objectives and Core Themes
This paper investigates the impact of an exogenous demographic transition on democracy. It aims to determine whether a statistically significant causal relationship exists and to identify the primary channels—specifically education, income, urbanization, and women’s empowerment—through which this demographic change influences political systems.
- Econometric analysis of the demographic transition as a driver for democratization.
- Identification of primary channels: Education, Urbanization, Women’s Empowerment, and Economic Growth.
- Application of panel data models, including OLS and Country Fixed Effects, covering over 150 countries.
- Evaluation of the influence of time and economic context (rich vs. poor nations) on the transition-democracy relationship.
Excerpt from the Book
2.1. The demographic transition
Thompson already assumed in 1929 that certain historical stages of nations are linked to their regarding mortality and fertility rates. Notestein (1945) then developed a more detailed four-stage model based on observations in the Western World. His findings demonstrate that mortality rates start to decline at one point in the history of a country while fertility rates remain high, which leads to population growth. With a delay, however, fertility rates start to decline as well and once mortality and fertility rates both reach a low steady state the population stops growing. An illustration of this process according to Sunde&Cervelatti (2011, p. 103) is presented in figure 1.
MT denotes the onset of the mortality transition, which is succeeded by population growth. With a time delay fertility rates start to decline as well (FT) and thus population growth slows down. This process is called “demographic transition”, which is defined in this paper by two criterions that have to be fulfilled by a country in order to be classified as post-transitional: the life expectancy has to be above fifty and crude birthrates below thirty. These criterions are two out of three used by Sunde&Cervelatti (2011, p.107) in accordance with Chesnais’ (1992, p.19) norms. The third one, a sustained decline in fertility, is hard to quantify and left out because the criterion of crude birth rates below thirty is more restrictive and therefore ensures the satisfaction of the third criterion as well.
Another definition of demographic transition is given by Reher (2004, p.21), who identifies the starting point as “the beginning of the first quinquennium after a peak, where fertility declines by at least 8% over two quinquennia and never increases again to levels approximating the original take-off point“ (Reher, 2004, p.21). The dates of the demographic transition computed by employing above mentioned criterions as well as Reher’s specification are presented in appendix B.1.
Summary of Chapters
1. INTRODUCTION: Outlines the research goal of analyzing the causal links between demographic transition and democracy, establishing the demographic transition as an exogenous starting point.
2. MOTIVATING THEORY: Explores the theoretical framework of the demographic transition and how factors like education, urbanization, and economic growth connect demography to political change.
3. DATA AND DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Describes the panel data sources used, including World Bank indicators and Polity IV scores, and provides initial visual correlations.
4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS: Details the econometrical models, including OLS and fixed effects, used to test the influence of the demographic transition on democratic development and its underlying channels.
5. LIMITATIONS: Discusses methodological challenges, such as potential omitted variable bias and the complexities of simultaneous causality in a globalized world.
6. CONCLUSION: Summarizes the key findings, confirming a positive impact of demographic transition on democracy primarily in developing countries through higher life expectancies and better education.
Keywords
Demographic transition, Democracy, Democratization, Life expectancy, Fertility rates, Education, Urbanization, Economic growth, Panel data, OLS model, Fixed effects, Exogeneity, Political stability, Mortality decline, Human capital.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core subject of this thesis?
The thesis examines the econometrical relationship between the global process of demographic transition and the development of democracy across different nations.
What are the primary themes discussed?
The work focuses on how shifts in mortality and fertility impact societal structures, specifically looking at education, urbanization, female empowerment, and economic growth as mediators of democracy.
What is the central research objective?
The main goal is to test whether the demographic transition has a statistically significant positive influence on democracy and to pinpoint the specific channels through which this effect manifests.
Which scientific methods are utilized in the analysis?
The author uses linear panel data models, specifically pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) and linear fixed effects models, to analyze data from over 150 countries spanning two centuries.
What topics are covered in the main body?
The main body covers the theoretical background of demographic change, detailed descriptive statistics, empirical model specifications, robust checks regarding timing and income, and an in-depth channel analysis.
Which keywords define the scope of this research?
Key terms include demographic transition, democracy, human capital (education), urbanization, fixed effects models, and the democratization of developing economies.
How does income affect the transition-democracy relationship?
The analysis finds that the effect of the demographic transition on democracy is stronger in low-income countries, as rich countries have often already reached a certain level of democratic and socio-economic development.
Why are life expectancies considered a major driver?
Higher life expectancies lead to longer-term planning, increased investments in education, and a more productive labor force, which creates a more informed and capable citizenry, thus promoting democratic participation.
What is the significance of the "youth bulge" argument?
It is mentioned in the context of Cincotta’s approach, suggesting that young, pre-transitional societies are often more unstable, which can hinder the rise of democracy as people prioritize security over political rights.
- Arbeit zitieren
- Marie Lechler (Autor:in), 2011, An econometrical analysis of the interdependencies between the demographic transition and democracy, München, GRIN Verlag, https://www.hausarbeiten.de/document/208290
