This paper poses the research question: what causes civil war? Since the end of World War II, both incidence and duration of civil wars have been on the rise, with disastrous outcomes for humanity. It is crucial that academics study this phenomenon and try to create theories which are able to explain and predict civil war onset for different countries.
Two main competing theories have become prominent in the modern day literature surrounding the outbreak of civil war. On the one hand there are “greed” theorists employing econometric models to account for rebel opportunism. These theories centre around the notion that ethno-linguistically or religiously diverse countries experience civil war as a result of the incentive to rebel compared to the state’s ability to counter rebellion. Greed theories focus largely on the ability of rebel groups to recruit and finance themselves, in addition to a number of other variables, which make civil war more or less conducive. On the other side are advocates of the “grievance” theory who argue civil wars start as a result of grievances, built up as a result of political and material discrimination. Depending on the level of grievance in combination with the ability of ethnocultural groups to mobilise and the state’s response to initial protest, civil war occurs.
This paper focuses on two case studies, with opposing dependent variables. The first is Uganda which has experienced multiple internal conflicts of varying intensity since gaining independence. The other is Kenya which has been spared the outbreak of a full-blown civil war, although it has experienced a number violent ethnic clashes. The case studies are relatively similar so as to control for third variables, yet chosen in such a fashion as to avoid bias or case fixing. For both countries the greed model is firstly applied followed by a more in-depth look at whether the rationale behind the given independent variables corresponds with political-economic realities. The second part of each case study looks at the applicability of grievance based theories and which set of explanations holds more power with regards to civil war onset. The analysis of both models in the context of the two chosen case studies should determine which theory holds the most explanatory power in relation to civil war onset.
Table of Contents
Introduction
Literature Review and Research Design
Introduction
Literature Review
Greed
Grievance
Research Design
Introduction
Dependent Variable
Independent Variables
Greed
Grievance
Case Selection
Research Methodology
Conclusion
Uganda
Introduction
Historical Context
Uganda: Greed
Uganda: Grievance
Conclusion
Kenya
Introduction
Historical Context
Kenya: Greed
Kenya: Grievance
Conclusion
Conclusion
Research Objectives and Themes
This dissertation investigates the root causes of civil war by evaluating the competing "greed" and "grievance" theories within contemporary literature. Through a comparative analysis of Uganda and Kenya, the study seeks to determine which theoretical framework provides greater explanatory and predictive power regarding the onset of civil war.
- The comparative analysis of "greed" versus "grievance" as drivers of conflict.
- The role of horizontal inequalities in mobilizing ethnic and social groups.
- The effectiveness of economic models, such as the Collier and Hoeffler (CH) framework, in predicting civil war.
- The influence of colonial history and state political structures on internal stability.
- The use of case studies with divergent outcomes (Uganda's multiple civil wars vs. Kenya's relative stability) to test causal mechanisms.
Excerpt from the Dissertation
Uganda: Greed
This paper’s assessment of the greed model’s ability to explain civil war onset is two parted. First, this paper attempts to illustrate the Collier and Hoeffler model’s predictive capacity by calculating the ‘marginal probabilities’ for specific years in the form of contribution to risk of civil war onset in percentages. The second stage examines how well the causal mechanisms behind the different independent variables hold up in the specific case of Uganda. In other words, if the model does hold sufficient predictive power, is this due to identifiable causation or merely correlation without causation.
Although the author of this paper would have liked to used the Collier et al. 2009 model to calculate the marginal probabilities for civil war onset. Their latest model does not give a marginal probabilities table with corresponding coefficients and a constant. To calculate these, raw data collected by the authors would be needed. Therefore, this paper will employ the CH 2004 model to calculate marginal probabilities and use the 2009 model to compare new variables such as former French colony and percentage of young males. Nonetheless, the outcomes of the 2004 model should not be radically different from the 2009 model as it still uses key variables such as primary commodity export and time since previous war.
The risk of civil war onset using the Collier Hoeffler model is calculated by employing the following method: independent variables, taken from the Collier and Hoeffler model, are multiplied by their respective coefficient, producing the independent variable’s contribution to risk. The sum of these are then entered into the formula of appendix A2.3 in Collier and Hoeffler’s 2004 work:
Summary of Chapters
Introduction: Outlines the research question regarding the causes of civil war and introduces the competing "greed" and "grievance" theories.
Literature Review and Research Design: Discusses existing academic debates, defines the research scope, and justifies the selection of Uganda and Kenya as case studies.
Uganda: Examines the history of conflict in Uganda, testing the predictive capacity of the greed model against the historical and social reality of grievance-based motivations.
Kenya: Analyzes the Kenyan context, where the absence of full-scale civil war despite ethnic tensions challenges the universality of the "greed" model.
Conclusion: Synthesizes the findings, confirming that grievance theories offer more precise explanatory power for the specific conflict dynamics observed in the two countries.
Keywords
Civil war onset, greed theory, grievance theory, horizontal inequalities, Uganda, Kenya, Collier and Hoeffler model, ethnic conflict, political violence, relative deprivation, internal conflict, state repression, resource looting, case study analysis, conflict causation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core subject of this dissertation?
The dissertation explores the primary drivers of civil war, specifically examining the debate between greed-based economic models and grievance-based social or political explanations.
What are the primary themes investigated?
The key themes include the impact of resource availability, economic growth, and secondary education, as well as the role of horizontal inequalities, colonial legacies, and state political structures in driving or preventing conflict.
What is the central research question?
The research asks what causes civil war and which of the two dominant theories—greed or grievance—better accounts for the onset of such conflicts.
Which methodology is employed?
The study uses in-depth qualitative analysis supported by existing quantitative model testing to compare case studies of Uganda and Kenya.
What is the focus of the main body of the work?
The main body focuses on calculating civil war risk probabilities for Uganda and Kenya using established economic models and then evaluating these results through a historical and qualitative lens to identify actual causation.
What are the key keywords for this work?
Core keywords include civil war onset, greed vs. grievance, horizontal inequalities, Uganda, Kenya, ethnic conflict, and relative deprivation.
Why were Uganda and Kenya selected for this study?
They were chosen because they are similar in several demographic and structural variables, yet exhibit drastically different outcomes regarding full-scale civil war, providing an ideal control environment for comparative analysis.
How does the author view the "looting mechanism" in the Greed model?
The author identifies significant flaws in the lootable resources theory, particularly in the Ugandan context, arguing that primary commodities like coffee or cotton are not easily lootable for financing rebel insurgencies compared to resources like gold or diamonds.
What role does colonial history play in the author’s grievance theory?
The author argues that colonial policies in both Uganda and Kenya created or exacerbated ethnic divisions and set the foundation for the horizontal inequalities that elites later exploited to mobilize political violence.
- Quote paper
- Ralph Myers (Author), 2010, Civil War Onset - A Comparison of Uganda and Kenya, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.hausarbeiten.de/document/158942
