This paper has four primary aims; firstly, it explains the requirements a country needs to be called a superpower. Secondly, it analyses whether China fulfils the criteria of a superpower, as defined in the first section. Thirdly, it analyses the costs of such an enormous development. Lastly, this essay synthesizes the data points to answer the leading question; could China become the new world superpower?
China’s emerge as a dominating world power is not unprecedented by any means. In a period of only a few decades, China has transformed into the global centre of economic activity, through increased production and investments, as well as reformed import and export policy. These advancements are confirmed on a daily basis by reports on China’s skyrocketing growth and prosperity. China is easily regarded as the country of the future. Nevertheless, this phenomenon begs the question, how can the West better understand China’s rapid development, especially when Western countries lack a basic understanding of this side of the world?
Table of Contents
1. Preface
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Definition of Superpower
2. China’s economic power
3. China’s political power
4. China’s military power
5. Critics of China’s development
6. Résumé
7. References
1. Preface
China’s emerge as a dominating world power is not unprecedented by any means. In a period of only a few decades, China has transformed into the global center of economic activity, through increased production and investments, as well as reformed import and export policy. These advancements are confirmed on a daily basis by reports on China’s skyrocketing growth and prosperity. China is easily regarded as the country of the future (Bremmer, 2017). Nevertheless, this phenomenon begs the question, how can the West better understand China’s rapid development, especially when Western countries lack a basic understanding of this side of the world?
In an effort to give myself a better awareness of this situation, as well as to practice maintaining a neutral and independent opinion, I decided to shift my studies for a semester abroad to the Beijing Foreign Studies University (BFSU) in Beijing, China from where I write this essay.
1.1 Introduction
China - the country of the middle - known as the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the most populated country on earth. It is governed by Xi Jinping, leader of the Communist Party and spearhead of China’s enormous growth period (Ward, 2019). Xi Jinping’s actions aided the PRC’s ascendance as one of the most important and powerful players on the world stage. But how powerful is China really? And is China a world superpower, or does it have the potential to become one? Is the contemporary unipolar world transitioning into a bipolar world order, where China plays a significant role? To answer these questions sufficiently and precisely, it is important to take into account modern Chinese history.
For most of history, China was seen as a non-relevant and an unworthy player on the world stage. This perception was reinforced when Mao Zedong, inspired by the Soviet Union, introduced a communist planned economy system to the People's Republic of China (PRC). Nevertheless, Mao’s new system proved insufficient because the country faced many internal problems, such as a poorly executed government-managed food supply that caused millions of deaths (Akbar, 2010). In turn, China was regarded as a third world country (Fernandez, 2017). However, Mao’s death in 1978 marks a new era for China characterized by a series of drastic changes. Guided by the new Communist government under Deng Xiaoping, China ousted the long-lasting Soviet-inspired planned economy, and replaced it with a socialistic market economy. This prompted a burst of economic growth. For instance, China opened its door to the world by reforming its whole system; foreign policy connections were permitted and international trade and foreign investment was encouraged. From this point on, these relations were in the best interest of the government. This collaboration between a shifting economy and a supportive government encouraged more open and long-term focused aided China’s economic growth (Teufel Dryer, 2018).
This paper has four primary aims; firstly, it explains the requirements a country needs to be called a superpower. Secondly, it analyses whether or not China fulfills the criteria of a superpower, as defined in the first section. Thirdly, it analyzes the costs of such an enormous development. Lastly, this essay synthesizes the data points to answer my leading question; could China become the new world superpower?
1.2 Definition of Superpower
The term superpower refers to an extremely powerful nation. An accurate definition of this term is “a country that is able to have a certain influence on the world stage based on its dominant power which is subdivided into political, economic and military power” (Cambridge University Press, 1996). Therefore, states aiming to become a world power strive for this superiority. Currently only the United States fulfills the criteria to be considered as a superpower. This status was acquired after World War II when it achieved peak economic, political, and military power (Frum, 2014).
Due to the vague definition “certain influence,” as stipulated in Cambridge University’s description of superpower, China is often compared to the U.S. circumstances to better understand where China stands now.
2. China’s economic power
China’s economic achievements are considered a miracle of modern economic development. Looking back fifty years ago, the economic power of the PRC was nearly nonexistent. China’s economy lagged behind that of Spain or the Netherlands, even though China’s size and population greatly surpassed both these European countries. (Ward, 2019, P.13-16). Even further, every three out of four Chinese citizens were categorized as impoverished with a life expectancy below the world average of 57.60 years (The World Bank, 2019). Over the years however, China has managed to develop itself into a global production site. The country produces a wide range of consumer goods - from textiles and electronic devices to cars - and offers them on the world market, making China the largest manufacturing economy in the world. China managed to become a commercial giant with the second largest economy, after the USA, and the fastest growing economy on earth (Morrison, 2019). The World Bank states that in 2019 only 1% of citizens are categorized as poor. Additionally, life expectancy reached an average of 77.79 years in 2019 (The World Bank, 2019). The GDP shows similar trends. The USA’s GDP stands at $20.58 trillion with a 3.21% growth per annum in 2018. In comparison, China’s GDP has risen to $13.4 trillion with an annual growth of 9% over the last 30 years, making it nearly a three times higher growth rate than one of the prevailing superpower (Morrison, 2019). Experts argue a lot about when exactly China will eclipse the USA’s GDP, but nearly all agree that this will happen by 2030 (Tang, 2019, P. 71). Additionally, China’s receiving foreign direct investments (FDI) increased from $4.4 billion in 1991 to $168.22 billion in 2019 indicating a highly attractive economy. Another important factor of state economic power is the agreements and memberships between various countries. China belongs to several free trade agreements, including: The China South-Korma Free Trade Agreement, the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement, the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement, as well as free trade agreements with Pakistan and Switzerland. In 2001, the PRC became a member of the WTO, which further indicates China’s deepening integration into the world economy. After joining the WTO, China experienced explosive trade growth and is now the largest exporter with a value of $2.2 trillion exported goods in 2018. This supersedes the EU with $1.9 trillion and the US with $1.6 trillion. When it comes to imports, China sits in second place with $1.7 trillion, headed by the U.S. with $2.3 trillion (Morrison, 2019). According to the WTO, China exported 7.9% and imported only 6.6% of all worldwide goods (WTO, 2019). These numbers are prognosticated to steadily grow for the next years to come. China’s most significant imported goods are machinery (30%), such as integrated circuits, and mineral products (22%), including crude petroleum. In terms of exports, the biggest percentage is also allocated to machinery (49%), but mainly pertains to broadcasting equipment and computers, followed by textiles (10.2%). The most important ex- and import partners are the US, followed by Japan, Germany and South Korea (OEC, 2018). Although China experiences a tense relationship with the US due to imposed tariffs created by the US government to slow down overall economic figures, they still remain China’s most important trade partner. These tariffs decreased China’s GDP by 2%, but this topic is still in discussion with an unknown outcome (Elliott, 2019). Nevertheless, my Chinese International Trade Professor at the BFSU, Lili Dong, argued that in the long run, the U.S. tariffs can be seen as beneficial. They could potentially help China to become less dependent on the U.S. by forcing China to develop its own products and economy. That’s why, according to Dong, China will come out stronger than before out of this trade war (Dong, 2019).
Another mentionable point is that China’s investments abroad accumulated to more than $1 trillion since 2006. Almost every region of the world has been touched by Chinese investments. In fact, China drastically increased its investments since 2016 by 18% (Morrison, 2019). That helps to ensure economic influence and leverage economic strength in favor of the PRC. These investments are mainly focused in the utility and transportation sector. For example, Chinese investments flow into Africa, where they play a key role in financing ports and roads, accumulating to $83.01 Billion since 2006. While China is already a regional power in Asia, it is looking to developing regions such as Africa to expand its global presence and influence. Furthermore, the African continent represents a logical place to extend its geopolitical influence in terms of the 2013 launched “One Belt, One Road Initiative”. The primary goal is to link 69 countries across Eurasia, Africa, and Oceania with two shipping routes, the first over land and the second maritime. This objective requires building ports, railways, and highways which means investing billions of dollars in other countries. This project highlights China’s desire to create a China-dominated Eurasia as opposed to the American-dominated transatlantic area (Qayyum, 2019).
3. China’s political power
Becoming a major player in the world economy inevitably goes hand in hand with greater political power. China consistently upholds the banner of peace, development, and cooperation and pursues an independent foreign policy of peace.
However, internally it becomes clear that the communist party possesses an enormous amount of power, which it will not hesitate to use against anyone, especially against those who think differently. Furthermore, the government started to monitor whole cities and its citizens. Within this process, people are being evaluated based on their actions. For example, crossing a red light is a legal offense and will result in a negative evaluation. If a person violates this law repeatedly, the government has the ability to imprison them or inflict a ban of leaving the country. Imagine what would happen if they monitor actions directed against the government? This criticized system is often called a “prison of modern society” by Western experts because it allows the Chinese government to have an incredible amount of power over its own population (Lee, 2019).
On a global scale, China has started to play a more significant role in international politics and came to present itself more. For instance, China belongs to promising contracts with Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa, which exclusively guarantee the access to important resources, and therefore ensure further economic growth. The 2009 formed BRICS association, membership in the WTO and also G20, APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, are all indicators of greater political power. China is also a member of the World Bank and possesses the third largest voting share (6.09%) after the USA (16.52%) and Japan (6.15%). As a permanent member of the United Nations (UN) Security Council, the PRC belongs to the elite club of recognized powerful nations. Furthermore, holding a veto right, which only 4 other countries have, underlines China’s political importance on the world stage (Qayyum, 2019).
Nevertheless, political relations for China have not universally improved, due to economic interdependence. The Clinton administration regarded China as a strategic partner, but the Bush government saw the PRC already as a rival. Trump’s imposed US-tariffs are a good indication that this way of thinking hasn’t changed (Nacht, 2018).
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