Food Security in India. Issues and Suggestions for Effectiveness

INTRODUCTION

Attaining food security is a matter of prime importance for India where more than a-third of its population is estimated to be absolutely poor, and as many as one half of its children have suffered from malnourishment over the last three decades. Several important issues have emerged in the context of food security in India. These have been (a) the liberalization of the economy and its impact on agriculture and food security; (b) the establishment of the WTO and the agreement on Agriculture; (c) climate change and its impact on food production and prices; (d) the prevalence of hunger and poverty coexisting with high levels of food stocks; (e) the introduction of the targeted Public Distribution System (f) the „Right to Food‟ campaign; and (g) the National Food Security Bill. These important issues have posed severe challenges for food security in the country.

The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) states that food security emerges when all people at all times have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. Food security has three important and closely related components, which are availability of food, access to food, and absorption of food.

Food security is thus a multi-dimensional concept and extends beyond the production availability, and demand for food. There has been a definite and significant paradigm shift in the concept of food security from mere macro level availability and stability to micro level household food insecurity, and also from an assessment of energy intake to measures and indicators of malnutrition.

1. FOOD SECURITY IN INDIA: A BRIEF OVERVIEW

The green revolution initiated in the late 1960s was a historic watershed that transformed the food security situation in India. It tripled food grain production over the next three or four decades and consequently reduced by over 50 percent both the levels of food insecurity and poverty in the country, this was achieved in spite of the increase in population during the period, which almost doubled. The country succeeded in the laudable task of becoming a food self- sufficient nation, at least at the macro level.

The per capita dietary energy supply increased significantly from 2370 kcal/day in the early 1990s to about 2440 kcal/day in 2001-03 and to 2550 kcal/day in 2006-08. The prevalence of undernourishment in the total population also decreased from 25 to 20 per cent during the period of 1990 to 2000, and as many as 58 million individuals were estimated to have come out of the poverty trap. The absolute number of poor persons came down from 317 million to 259 million with other livelihood indicators such as the literacy rate and longevity increasing substantially. The life expectancy at birth for males and females respectively, in 2005-06 was 63 and 66 years respectively as compared to that in 1986-91, which was as low as 58 and 59 years for males and females respectively. (Agricultural Statistics at a Glance; 2007).

Table 1A: Per Capita Dietary Energy Supply and Prevalence of Under Nutrition in Total Population.

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Source: FAO, RAP, 2007/15 and FAO Year Book 2012.

Notwithstanding the achievement of macro level food security and the discernable improvement in per capita consumption, the country is still home to a-fifth of the world‟s undernourished population. This given situation has been ascribed to high and increasing population pressure with nearly 16 million people being added annually to the already large population exceeding 1.2 billion. This situation of hunger and malnutrition is also equally on account of serious problems related to the distribution and economic access to food, which adversely affect household and individual level food insecurities.

According to the FAO‟s latest food security report, micronutrient and vitamin A deficiency were the prime determinants to child health and nutrition in India. It is reported that nearly 57 percent of pre-school children suffered from vitamin A deficiency, a significantly higher level as compared to even Sub Saharan Africa. The infant mortality rate in India (for infants under one year) was as high as 56 in 2005. The NFHS-3 reported that 19 percent of India‟s children were wasted, 38 percent stunted, and 46 percent were underweight, figures that are disturbing and far from satisfactory.

The extent and nature of food insecurity can be broadly categorized into (1) Chronic Food Insecurity (2) Nutritional Insecurity (3) Food Insecurity caused by lack of Food Absorption, and (4) Transitory Food Insecurity. There are several factors, both on the supply side, as well as the demand side that may cause chronic food insecurity. The most important supply side determinants of food insecurity are (a) the level of domestic food production, (b) the imports of food and (c) the distribution of food (PDS). The determinants on the demand side are (i) the growth of population (ii) the purchasing power; (iii) product prices/subsidies and (iv) the extent and effectiveness of supportive social programmes and schemes such as the ICDS, the Mid Day Meal scheme, Food for Work Programmes, and Rural Wage Employment Programmes.

2. THE AVAILABILITY OF FOOD

National Food Security is critically dependent on the adequate availability of sufficient food stocks to fully satisfy domestic demand at all times. This requirement can be ensured either through domestic food production or through imports. We must therefore first have a close look at the performance in terms of food availability and also the policies pursued in order to ensure that sufficient food is available to meet domestic demand.

The Status and Trends in Food Production and Availability

National self-sufficiency in food grain has been a major achievement in post-Independence India. Having remained a severely food deficit economy over two decades after Independence, India managed to achieve self-sufficiency in food grain production at the macro or national level. The green revolution ushered in a dramatic and steady increase in domestic food grain production practically eliminating the need for food imports, except to a very limited extent in times of extreme emergencies such as droughts and serious crop failure. Food grain production in the country registered a steady increase over two decades from only 50 million tonnes in 1950-51 to 244.5 million tonnes in 2010-11. The growth rate in food grain has been about 2.5 percent per annum during the post Independence period. Moreover the production of oilseeds, sugarcane, fruits, vegetables and milk has also increased significantly.

A closer look at the experience in the last two decades however indicates a tapering off or decline in both production and yields. It has been observed (S. Mahendra Dev, and A. Sharma 2011) that during the period 1996-2008 as compared to the years 1986-97, the growth rate in food grain production declined very sharply from nearly 3 percent to around 0.93 percent. Moreover the growth in production was much less than the growth in population in the latter period, having a serious impact on per capita availability. The growth rate of yields in food grain also declined from 3.21 percent to 1.04 percent. There was thus a decline in rates of production and yields for cereals, pulses, oilseeds, rice and wheat as seen in Table 1B below.

These being fitted trend rates based on CACP, 2009. Major Factors Responsible for Decline in Food Production

The performance in the agriculture sector is extremely vital for ensuring adequate availability and access to food; this is more so because more than 55 percent of the country‟s population depends on this primary sector. The more recent status of the agriculture sector and the factors primarily responsible for the disturbing slowdown in this sector provide a clear explanation for the notable decline in the growth of food production.

Agricultural growth in the country was quite high from the Fifth Plan to the Ninth Plan and reached its peak of 5.7 percent during the Sixth Plan period. It has however declined significantly during the Tenth and Eleventh Plan. Over a longer period we see that the growth rate has declined from 3.5 percent per annum from 1981-92 to 1996-97, to about 2.0 percent or even lower from 1997-98 to 2004-05. However, there have been some encouraging signs of improvement in recent years.

Table 1B: Growth Rate and Yields of Food grain, Oilseeds and Pulses (percent per annum)

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Source: As in S.Mahendra Dev, and A. Sharma, 2011. There being filled trend rates based on CACP, 2009.

Indian agriculture faces both short run and long run constraints and problems. These are reflected in widespread farmers suicides which are increasing in some states. With declining growth in yields, farming is increasingly becoming a non-viable activity. With rising land degradation, loss of soil fertility and water logging, the problems faced by the farming community are on the rise. The fall in ground water levels and decline in surface irrigation are being faced in several regions.

The significant differences in productivity across regions and among different crops, as also between irrigated and non-irrigated farmland is giving rise to regional disparities and resulting inequalities. These domestic constraints accompanied by our exposure to international competition and international price volatility has affected domestic agriculture progressively in the recent past. The shrinking of farm size due to sub division and land alienation is aggravating the agrarian crisis. The diversion of agricultural land to set up special economic zones, the change in land use due to urbanization and the alienation of tribal land for mining and other industrial activities are other important issues that pose severe challenges to the farming community.

There are several other important reasons that have emerged as factors responsible for the deceleration of agricultural growth since the mid 90s (GoI 2007). Most important among them is the slowing down of public and private investment in agriculture and rural infrastructure. There has been a marked decline in investment related to irrigation, technological change and diversification of agriculture, and fertilizer use in spite of a significant increase in agricultural credit. However, there is some evidence related to the revival of agricultural growth in recent years but this trend is far from encouraging keeping in mind the vital role of the agricultural sector in ensuring food security and livelihoods.

Per Capita Availability of Food Grains

At the macro level the availability of food grain is calculated as 87.5 percent of the gross production (with the rest accounting for seeds, farm animal feed and waste) plus imports minus the changes in stocks held by the government. Assuming no net change in private stocks this can be treated as representing the overall food grain consumption in the country.

The pre-independence period witnessed a rapid decline in per capita availability of food grains from about 545 gm per day to a level as low as 407 gm per day. This was largely on account of the policies of the colonial government. However on the basis of five year averages India witnessed a significant rise in net availability from a level of 416 gm per day in 1950-55 to a level of 485 gm per day during the period 1989-91 (Patnaik, 2004). However since the early 1990s there has been a significant fall in food grain availability to a level of 445 gm per day by the year 2006-07 (Saxena N.C., 2011).

The per capita net availability is estimated to have increased by a mere 10 percent over a 56- year period from 1951 to 2007. However, the net availability of food grain has declined if one compares the level of 469 gm per day in 1960 with a mere 443 gm per day as reported in the year 2007. This implies that significant increases in food grain production have not been able to keep up with the increase in population. It is important to mention here that there has been a steady decline in net per capita food grain availability in the post-economic reforms period of 1991 to 2007, with the levels falling from 501 gm per day in 1991 to only 443 gm per day in 2007.

According to some analysts, this was also on account of the export of nearly seven million tonnes of food grain per annum during the period 2002 to 2007. This export of food grain at highly subsidized prices to tackle the low world prices was preferred over undertaking widespread internal distribution of food grain to those in need (Saxena N.C., 2011). It may also be seen from Table 2 below that while net availability of cereals declined from a level of 468.5 gm per day in 1991 to a level of 407.4 gm per day in 2007, the net availability of pulses which is a major protein source in the Indian diet declined significantly during the same period. While it was 41.6 gm per day in 1991, it fell to a level as low as 31.5 gm per day in 2005 but improved significantly to 35.5 gm per day in the next two years though it is still below the stipulated norms.

On the other hand the per capita net availability of edible oils and sugar has increased over the years, more due to an increasing level of imports than on account of any impressive increase in domestic oilseed production.

Table 2: Net Availability of Cereals, Pulses, Edible Oils, Vanaspati and Sugar

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Sources: Economic Survey 2008-2009, and 2012-13, Government of India. Note: *Pertains to the year 1955-56

Changes in Consumption Patterns

Though there was a marked rise in per capita real expenditure from 1972-73 to 2004-05, the per capita cereal intake declined in both rural and urban areas. This fall in cereal consumption was however accompanied by an increase in the consumption of non-cereal food. It is clearly evident that in the post green revolution period there has been diversification in the food consumption patterns, and the share of cereal consumption in total household consumption has declined in rural and urban areas. In Table 3 these changes in the food basket are shown for different deciles of rural and urban population.

Table 3: Percentage of Cereal Consumption in Household Budget for different Income Groups in both Rural and Urban Sectors

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Source: NSS Consumer Expenditure Surveys, Government of India.

Note: The shares are derived from the expenditure at constant prices (1993-94 prices)

It is seen in Table 3 that the share of cereals in total consumption has declined notably even for the lowest three deciles of the population in both rural and urban areas. However, the fall in cereals consumption varies considerably for the different income groups with the middle and higher deciles accounting for a sharper reduction. This is an expected trend as income increases. However, the decline in cereal consumption by the three poorest deciles of the population in both rural and urban areas is a matter of concern as these groups meet a large proportion of their nutritional requirements through cereal consumption while their access to non-cereal foods is limited and is also affected by the different prices of cereal and non-cereals. This trend seems to strongly indicate a lowering of the energy requirements of the poor and has a serious nutritional implication that needs to be carefully examined.

Projected Supply and Demand for Food

Several studies have attempted to estimate the future demand and supply scenario for food in the country (Kumar, P., 1998; Bhalla, G.S. et al, 2001;Dyson, T. and Hanchate, A., 2000). Most of these studies have predicted a comfortable demand-supply balance for food grain during the coming decade. While India is expected to be self sufficient in food grains, it would have to continue importing pulses and oilseeds to meet its future requirements.

The projected demand and supply for the year 2020 has been estimated by the Ministry of Agriculture as seen in Table 4 below.

Table 4: Estimated Production and Projected Demand of Cereals and Non-Cereals

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Source: Ministry of Agriculture (2009)

The figures in Table 4 indicate that while the balance in food grain is expected to be maintained with enough supply to meet the projected demand in 2020, there is likely to be a shortfall in the case of coarse cereals, pulses, oilseeds as well as sugarcane. Thus the reliance on imports is likely to continue in pulses and oilseeds in particular till the year 2020.

Performance of the Food Management System

A nationwide public distribution system, which transfers available supplies to entitled consumers, is entirely run by the State Governments. It is closely supported by the Central Government through procurement of food grain from the surplus regions as well as by maintaining buffer stocks. This Central Government initiative intended to protect and incentivize farmers, is an effort to strengthen production and thereby self-sufficiency in food grains. The maintenance of buffer stocks by the Central Government on the other hand is intended to guard against volatility in basic food grain prices and achieve the necessary moderation in the prices of food grain in the open market in the event of any unforeseen fall in production, which takes place mainly due to climatic conditions such as drought. The buffer stock thus provides an effective means of intervention by the Centre in order to control prices and ensure availability and access to the especially vulnerable population.

The food management system and food price policy thus consists of three major instruments, namely procurement at minimum support prices, the maintenance of buffer stocks, and the public distribution system. As the procurement and buffer stocking activity falls largely within the ambit of the Central Government and has a critical impact on macro level availability and market prices of food grain, we will confine our discussion here to these two important food system interventions, and cover the PDS which ensures access to food grain and other essential commodities in the section regarding access and nutritional issues.

MSP and Procurement

While support price policy for agricultural commodities seeks to assure remunerative prices to farmers in order to ensure higher production and investment, it also tries to safeguard the interest of consumers by ensuring supplies at affordable and reasonable prices, through the provision of subsidy. It may be mentioned here that the benefits of the minimum support prices (MSP) offered to farmers depends on the level of awareness of farmers, which is still reported to be quite low (NSSO 59th Round 2003).

The MSP announced for each year is fixed by the State on the basis of recommendations of the CACP. During the last decade the MSP has increased sharply as compared to the earlier decade. The MSP for paddy of common variety increased by as much as nearly 70 percent during the short span of 2004-05 to 2009-10 as compared to a rise of only 9.8 percent for the period 2000-01 to 2004-05. Similarly there has been a sharp increase of MSP for wheat by 71.0 percent in the second half of the last decade as compared to the first half wherein the MSP for wheat grew at a mere 8.6 percent.

Table 5: Procurement of Rice and Wheat.

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Source: Department of Food and Public Distribution System, GoI, 2009, and Economic Survey 2012-13.

The growing concern for maintaining adequate stocks for effective price interventions in the event of unforeseen declines in production and resulting food insecurity seems to be the reason for the escalating MSP, and food grain procurement has certainly responded to this by increasing significantly in the recent years, as seen in Table 5.

Buffer Stocks

The maintenance of a buffer stock is important for ensuring national food security. Stocks mainly of rice and wheat are regularly maintained from year to year at a substantial cost in order to effectively take care of variations in domestic food grain output. These variations occur quite regularly due to climate and man-made factors. Buffer stocks are created from the domestic food surpluses available in years of high production. They are also built and maintained through imports as and when necessary. The optimum size of the buffer stocks at any point of time is based on the suggestions of expert committees appointed for the purpose by the government from time to time. At present the size of the buffer stock varies between 15 and 25 million tonnes according to seasonal requirements.

Table 6: Buffer Stock of Food grains (in million tonnes)

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Source: Department of Food and Public Distribution System, GoI, 2009

The trend in buffer stocking over the last decade are indicated in Table 6. The figures show the actual level of buffer stocks available over the years as compared to the norm that has been stipulated.

The steep and perpetual rise in MSP, accompanied by the rise in issue prices combined with the obligation to mop up all the stocks offered by farmers led to a steep rise in the buffer stock to a level of 63 million tonnes in 2002 far exceeding the norms, of 25 million tonnes as on 1st July 2002.

The severe drought in 2003 led to a drawing down of the buffer stock in subsequent years and in 2006-07 the levels fell substantially below the norms. This forced the government to import wheat during the years 2006-07. With a spike in production and procurement in 2008 the level of buffer stocks again rose sharply to a level substantially higher than the norms. Buffer stocks exceeded the stipulated norm in 2008 and 2009, however this helped in effectively cushioning shortfalls caused by the drought in 2009. Droughts seem to occur with greater frequency mainly as a consequence of climate change and uncertain weather and perhaps it is time to seriously review the norms for buffer stocking though this would further increase the financial burden of the Central Government. De-centralization of both procurement and buffer stocking seems to be the only way out with the greater sharing of responsibilities between the Centre and the states in order to ensure food security and manage the food system in the days ahead.

Measures and Policies for Sustaining and Strengthening Availability

The health of the agricultural sector and its sustained growth and development is central to ensuring national level availability of cereal and non-cereal food. The major areas of concern for the sector are (a) infrastructure, (b) land and water management, (c) agricultural research and extension, (d) agricultural inputs and credit, (e) effective marketing and price policies, (f) diversification, and (g) development and strengthening of institutions to effectively meet the challenges posed by these concerns.

Infrastructure requires increasing investment, which is inversely related to the level of subsidies. The only way to increase investment in essential agricultural infrastructure is thus to reduce unsustainable subsidies. This would provide resources for public investment and larger outlays for infrastructure. Public investment is always seen to lead private investment, and both are crucial for enhancing agricultural growth. Though gross capital formation in agriculture has increased in recent years, it needs to go up substantially in order to enable the achievement of higher levels of agricultural growth as compared to the present level which is disturbingly low, and which has been declining steadily in recent years.

The second factor that has adversely affected the growth of productivity in the agricultural sector in recent times is the notable deterioration in soil quality, water shortages, as well as the rapid depletion in ground water. The sustenance of soil health and the management of water resources thus require immediate attention.

There is an urgent need to enhance water conservation measures and the efficient and sustainable use of water. Proper water management involving investments in irrigation, watershed development, and community based water conservation measures require a boost. The restructuring of fertilizer subsidies by making them nutrient based is a desirable move and is likely to lead to a more balanced use of fertilizers that will go a long way in improving soil quality.

The lack of proper knowledge and awareness among Indian farmers with regard to existing technologies is yet another important constraint that affects the performance of the agricultural sector. The only way to improve this situation is to strengthen the agricultural training of extension staff. With wide variations in the agro-climatic conditions in different regions in the country especially in backward agricultural areas, research efforts require to be location specific particularly focused on region specific resources, patterns and practices in farming. The pioneering work in this direction initiated by the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation has been commendable and should be widely extended to more regions.

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