“In cities in six West African countries I saw similar young men everywhere--hordes of them. They were like loose molecules in a very unstable social fluid, a fluid that was clearly on the verge of igniting.” (Kaplan, 1994)
With his article “The Coming Anarchy” Kaplan ignited a discussion over the threat posed by youth cohorts to the civilized world. More than 15 years later there is still no clear evidence whether large populations of young men are a main factor in determining conflict risk or not. This paper now tries to connect the topic of demographically induced violence with another contemporary topic of development economics: growth volatility.
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Background
2.1 Growth Instability
2.2 Conflicts, Economy and Demographics
3 Methodology and data
4 Results
5 Conclusion
References
Research Objectives and Key Topics
This paper aims to bridge the gap between demographically induced violence and development economics by investigating whether high youth dependency rates increase the risk of conflict, and subsequently, if this increased conflict contributes to greater economic growth volatility in developing nations.
- Analysis of growth instability and volatility in developing countries since the mid-1970s.
- Examination of the theoretical link between youth dependency ratios and social conflict.
- Assessment of the economic consequences of civil conflicts, including growth impairment.
- Empirical investigation of whether conflict serves as a transmission channel between demographics and economic performance.
Excerpt from the Book
1 Introduction
“In cities in six West African countries I saw […] young men everywhere--hordes of them. They were like loose molecules in a very unstable social fluid, a fluid that was clearly on the verge of igniting.” (Kaplan, 1994)
With his article “The Coming Anarchy” Kaplan ignited a discussion over the threat posed by youth cohorts to the civilized world. More than 15 years later there is still no clear evidence whether large populations of young men are a main factor in determining conflict risk or not. This paper now tries to connect the topic of demographically induced violence with another contemporary topic of development economics: growth volatility.
Simple examples are enough to become aware of the importance of growth stability because already small growth rates – if stable over time – can lead to a tremendous development. A steady growth of annually 2% leads to a doubled GDP over the course of 35 years. 4% annual growth, a reasonable growth rate for many developing countries (The World Bank, 2011b), more than triples the GDP in 30 years. While many developing countries had satisfying steady growth rates after the Second World War until the mid 1970s, development crashed afterwards, especially in Latin American and African countries. If growth rates had been stable, today we would not speak of the ‘East Asian Miracle’ because many other countries could have developed a similar level of welfare.
Summary of Chapters
1 Introduction: This chapter introduces the research context, discussing the potential threat posed by large youth cohorts and connecting it to the economic problem of growth volatility.
2 Background: This section reviews existing literature on growth instability, the role of institutions and social conflict, and the specific contribution of demographics to economic resilience.
2.1 Growth Instability: This subsection details how economists have analyzed the underlying reasons for growth breakdowns since the 1970s, focusing on external shocks and social indicators.
2.2 Conflicts, Economy and Demographics: This subsection explores the inherent nature of conflicts, their economic costs, and the theoretical arguments linking youth bulges and dependency ratios to conflict risk.
3 Methodology and data: This chapter describes the empirical approach, the datasets utilized (including GDP, population, and conflict data), and the analytical models employed to test the paper's hypothesis.
4 Results: This chapter presents the statistical findings from the baseline regressions and robustness checks, analyzing the impact of conflict indicators on growth volatility.
5 Conclusion: This final chapter synthesizes the research findings, confirming that civil conflicts can serve as a channel through which demographic factors affect economic stability.
Keywords
Growth volatility, youth dependency, demographic transition, civil conflict, economic development, growth instability, institutions, youth bulges, grievance, greed, political violence, empirical research, macroeconomics, development economics, population structure.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core focus of this research paper?
The paper explores the intersection of demography and development economics, specifically investigating how demographic structures, like youth dependency, influence the economic volatility of developing countries through the channel of civil conflict.
What are the primary thematic areas covered?
The main themes include growth instability in developing nations, the economic impact of armed conflicts, the role of demographic factors in civil unrest, and the empirical testing of these relationships using regression models.
What is the central research question?
The research seeks to determine whether higher youth dependency increases the risk of violent civil conflict, and if this rise in conflict subsequently leads to increased economic growth volatility.
Which scientific methodology is employed?
The author uses empirical quantitative analysis, specifically performing baseline and robustness regressions on a dataset of 94 countries, utilizing growth differentials and conflict indicators as primary variables.
What is addressed in the main body of the work?
The body provides a theoretical background on growth volatility and conflict literature, describes the data collection process from sources like the UCDP/PRIO dataset, and presents the results of regression models to test the hypothesis.
Which keywords characterize the work?
Key terms include growth volatility, youth dependency, demographic transition, civil conflict, economic development, and institutional quality.
How do youth bulges theoretically impact conflict risk?
Youth bulges can increase conflict risk by challenging the status quo, providing a large supply of potential combatants, or exacerbating social tensions through high unemployment and exclusion, which may align with both 'greed' and 'grievance' motivations.
What conclusion does the author reach regarding the dataset used?
The author acknowledges that while the findings support the hypothesis that conflicts act as a channel for growth volatility, the dataset's indicators are averaged over long periods, suggesting that future research needs more disaggregated data for precise interpretation.
- Quote paper
- Robert Messerle (Author), 2011, Conflicts, Demography and the Economic Volatility in Developing Countries, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.hausarbeiten.de/document/179979
