Moreover, the large-scale attack of 9/11 proved that the former generally accepted maxim of “terrorists want a lot of people listening and not a lot of people dead” (Jenkins, 1985, p. 6) is not meeting the reality anymore. However, it is in question if these incidents really point towards a trend among terror groups to obtain and use WMD in order to achieve their political or religious aims. Nonetheless, WMD-terrorism became a political priority, particularly in the United States since the Clinton administration declared “(t)he acquisition of weapons of mass destruction by a terrorist group is unacceptable. There is no higher priority than preventing the acquisition of this capability or removing this capability from terrorist groups” (Clinton, 1995). Regardless of this political development, there is an extensive scholarly debate whether WMD-terrorism poses a new apocalyptical threat due to the “availability of information and expertise, heightened frustration of terrorists, demonization of target population, or messianic vision” (Ivanova & Sandler, 2007, p. 274) or whether the use of chemical, biological, nuclear or radiological agents (CBRN) by terrorist groups is exaggerated by the media or governmental and law enforcement agencies. However, it is necessary to recognize the differences between radiological / nuclear and chemical / biological agents since “these weapons differ greatly in their ease of production, in the challenges they pose for deterrence, and in the effectiveness of defensive measures against them” (Chyba, 2002).
The purpose of this paper is not to present a comprehensive survey of the possible threat assessments or potential counter measures. Rather, it will analyze what kind of terrorist groups are more likely to use CBRN for their purposes and what motivation determines the decision either to use or to restrain from the use of CBRN agents. Furthermore, this essay will examine the actual capabilities necessary to weaponize chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear material and the difficulties for terrorists to get to this stage.
Table of Contents
NBC terrorism since the end of the Cold War – myths and realities
Objectives and Topics
This paper examines the probability and motivation behind the potential use of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) agents by terrorist groups. It challenges the assumption of a looming apocalyptic threat by analyzing the technical hurdles of weaponization, the strategic logic of different types of terror organizations, and the historical evidence from documented cases.
- Analysis of motivations for CBRN use versus conventional terrorism.
- Evaluation of the "New Terrorism" versus "Old Terrorism" dichotomy.
- Assessment of technical capabilities and logistical difficulties in weaponizing CBRN agents.
- Case study review of the Aum Shinrikyo cult and their biological weapons program.
- Review of the deterrent and strategic factors influencing terrorist decision-making.
Excerpt from the Book
NBC terrorism since the end of the Cold War – myths and realities
It seems to be only a matter of time until the first terror group will develop the capabilities to utilise weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in large scale assaults, killing ten or hundred thousands of people. This assumption is often underscored by the sarin gas attack in Tokyo 1995, causing 12 fatalities and more than 5000 casualties, or the efforts of Al Qaeda to obtain WMD. Moreover, the large-scale attack of 9/11 proved that the former generally accepted maxim of “terrorists want a lot of people listening and not a lot of people dead” (Jenkins, 1985, p. 6) is not meeting the reality anymore. However, it is in question if these incidents really point towards a trend among terror groups to obtain and use WMD in order to achieve their political or religious aims.
The purpose of this paper is not to present a comprehensive survey of the possible threat assessments or potential counter measures. Rather, it will analyze what kind of terrorist groups are more likely to use CBRN for their purposes and what motivation determines the decision either to use or to restrain from the use of CBRN agents. Furthermore, this essay will examine the actual capabilities necessary to weaponize chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear material and the difficulties for terrorists to get to this stage.
Summary of Chapters
NBC terrorism since the end of the Cold War – myths and realities: The article investigates the perceived rise in the threat of WMD/CBRN terrorism by analyzing terrorist motivations, technical obstacles, and empirical historical data to determine the actual likelihood of such attacks.
Keywords
CBRN, WMD, Terrorism, Aum Shinrikyo, Al Qaeda, Radiological weapons, Biological agents, Asymmetric warfare, Weaponization, Nuclear terrorism, Dirty bomb, Technical hurdles, Motivations, Political violence, Religious terrorism
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the primary focus of this research paper?
The paper focuses on evaluating the real-world probability of terrorist groups employing weapons of mass destruction, specifically examining the gap between public perception and actual technical/strategic capabilities.
What are the central themes addressed in the text?
The central themes include the distinction between different types of terrorist ideologies, the technical challenges of weaponizing CBRN materials, and the strategic constraints that often prevent terrorists from using mass-casualty weapons.
What is the main research objective?
The objective is to analyze which types of terrorist groups are most likely to pursue CBRN agents and to identify the specific motivational and technical factors that influence their decision to either use or avoid these unconventional weapons.
Which scientific methodology is applied?
The author employs a qualitative analysis of scholarly debate, policy documents, and historical case studies (such as Aum Shinrikyo and the Tamil Tigers) to test hypotheses regarding terrorist behavior and WMD acquisition.
What topics are covered in the main body?
The body covers the dichotomy of "old" versus "new" terrorism, the role of state sponsorship, the inherent difficulties in producing and delivering biological or nuclear weapons, and the strategic risk-reward calculations made by terrorist leadership.
Which keywords characterize the work?
Key terms include CBRN, WMD, Aum Shinrikyo, asymmetric warfare, weaponization, and terrorist motivations.
Why does the author consider Aum Shinrikyo an exception?
Aum Shinrikyo is considered exceptional because it possessed a rare combination of significant financial resources, specialized scientific expertise, and an apocalyptic intent that other groups currently lack.
How does the author define the "dual-use" problem?
The "dual-use" problem refers to the challenge that materials and technologies used in legitimate pharmaceutical, industrial, or medical sectors can be illicitly diverted for the production of biological or chemical weapons, making it difficult to distinguish between benign and malicious activities.
What is the author's conclusion regarding the threat of nuclear terrorism?
The author concludes that while the threat exists, the technical obstacles and the lack of empirical evidence for terrorist involvement in nuclear smuggling suggest that an actual large-scale attack remains unlikely in the near future.
- Quote paper
- MSc. M.A. Robert Fiedler (Author), 2009, NBC terrorism since the end of the Cold War – myths and realities, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.hausarbeiten.de/document/163708
