The main objective of this study is to determine the macroeconomic determinants of the inflow of remittance in Ethiopia. The study used secondary data collected from the World Bank Data Index. The collected data was analyzed by the ARDL model. The gross domestic product of Ethiopia has a positive significant effect in the long run and its lag difference has a weak negative association in the short run. The host country's gross domestic product has no direct effect on remittance inflow in both the long and short run.
The domestic inflation rate of Ethiopia has a significant positive relationship with remittance inflow in the long run and has a significant negative association in the short run. The premium market has no significant effect on remittance inflow in both the long run and short run. In the long run, the saving rate has a significant negative relationship. The government stability of Ethiopia has a significant positive effect on remittance inflow in the long run; in the short run has no effects. The investment profile of Ethiopia has a significant negative effect on the remittance inflow in the study period. The government should manage domestic inflation because it negatively affects remittance inflow in the short run. The government should have more stable government stability and do more on diaspora to increase remittance inflow.
Table of contents
Introduction...2
Background of the study...2
Literature Review...3
Theoretical Review...3
Empirical Literature...4
Methodology of the study...6
Model Specification...6
Hypothesis test...8
Test of Data...8
Discussion and Analysis...8
Trends of Remittance in Ethiopia...8
The relationship between Remittance inflow and GDPDG...9
Empirical Analysis...10
Unit Root Test...10
Long Run ARDL Bounds Tests for Co-integration...10
Long Run ARDL Model Estimation and Error Correction Model...10
Conclusions and Recommendations...13
References...15
Introduction
Background of the study
Remittance refers to the transfer of money and goods from individuals or groups who live or work outside their home country to their country of origin. These individuals or groups send remittances to support their families and friends, as well as organizations. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in 2005, remittance has several benefits such as increasing household income, improving living standards, and reducing the likelihood of households falling into poverty. Remittance transactions are also part of a country's balance of payments, and countries receive foreign exchange from these transactions. Most developing countries rely on remittance inflow to finance their trade imbalance, and the trend of remittance inflow has been increasing steadily. This monetary support positively affects education and health outcomes and has been shown to support human capital development, particularly in children(Pattillo and Gupta , 2007).
Remittances, which are the money sent by people who live and work abroad to their families in their home countries, are a significant source of foreign income for developing nations. Over the past few decades, the flow of remittances to these countries has been on the rise. For instance, remittances to Sub-Saharan Africa grew by an estimated 9.6 percent from $42 billion in 2017 to $46 billion in 2018. Projections suggest that these numbers will continue to increase, though at a slower pace, reaching $48 billion by 2019 and $51 billion by 2020. This trend has been driven by the favorable economic conditions of the high-income economies where many migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa earn their income (World Bank, 2019).
Remittances are a central pillar in the economic sustainability of many developing nations. At the country level, these transfers reduce the balance of payment deficits, expand economic growth, and are a much more stable source of income than foreign direct investment (World Bank 2006; Borja, 2012). At the household level, remittances reduce poverty and improve the level of health, education, and consumption of recipient families (Frank and Hummer 2002; Cox-Edwards and Ureta 2003; Adams and Page 2005; Giannetti et al. 2009).
Given the large size of total remittance flows into developing countries, expected to have significant economic effects both at macro and micro levels on the economies that receive them. Analytical studies have shown that remittances contribute to poverty reduction in home countries and have the most straightforward link between migration and the welfare of the households in the origin country (Emerta et al, 2010). Remittance is serving as a source of investment (enables countries to invest more in human and physical capital) and consumption which in turn boosts economic growth. They also have the potential to become an important tool for economic development through loosening production and investment constraints and financial investment in new production technologies and input (Kroeger and Anderson , 2012).
The impact of remittances on Ethiopia's economy is significant. To utilize these unrequited flows better, it's crucial to understand what drives remittances. This understanding will help in designing appropriate policies that can reduce the stress caused by the lack of foreign currency. Unfortunately, there have been few studies on the determinants of remittances to Ethiopia, and most of them have focused on the micro-level. Therefore, there is a need to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of remittances inflow in Ethiopia. This paper aims to determine these determinants by using the ARDL approach.
The general objective of this study is to determine the macroeconomic variables that explain remittance flows and the specific objectives of the study are to assess the trend of remittance inflow in Ethiopia and to give policy recommendations.
Literature Review
Theoretical Review
According to Deodat and Christian (2021) theoretically, remittances can be analyzed from two different perspectives (the altruistic and portfolio viewpoints). From the perspective of altruism at the macro-level, remittances are higher when negative shocks associated with higher rates of under-employment and unemployment occur in migrant’s native country as the desperate macroeconomic conditions compel active labor to travel outside in search of greener pastures. In the case of pure altruism, higher growth in real GDP, lower rate of inflation, limited access to private sector credit, and exchange instability in the home countries adversely affect remittance inflows (Swamy, 1981; Brown, 1997; Vargas-Silva and Huang, 2006) as cited in Deodat and Christian, 2021).
In contrast, the portfolio choice theory suggests a direct relationship between remittances and GDP growth, as higher growth implies improved economic conditions and bigger potential markets which are required for increased investment, whereas the relationship between remittance inflows and macroeconomic and political instability is negative since investment opportunities may be limited. It is also asserted that the implementation of restrictive macroeconomic policies such as exchange rate restrictions do not attract higher remittances. On the other hand, a liberalized financial sector and improved financial development attract higher remittances (Russell, 1986; World Bank, 2006).
Empirical Literature
Lucas and Stark (1985) started the discussion on what determines the flow of remittances. Since then, numerous studies have investigated the issue empirically. Although the reasons why people send remittances may vary across households, countries, and time, it is generally believed that an increase in migrant income and negative economic shocks in the home country lead to higher remittance flows. For example, many studies, including those by El-Sakka and McNabb (1999), De la Bière et al. (2002), Bouhga-Hagbe (2006), Yang and Choi (2007), and Singh et al. (2010) show that remittances tend to be countercyclical, meaning they increase when the home country's economy performs poorly. However, some studies, such as those by Higgins et al. (2004), Aydas et al. (2004), and Freund and Spatafora (2005), suggest that remittances are pro-cyclical, meaning they rise with improvements in the GDP per capita and growth rate of remittance-receiving countries. Sayan (2006) finds that, in most cases, remittances tend to be either cyclical or pro-cyclical. As observed by the IMF (2005), the level of economic activities in the migrant’s resident country is important because improved economic conditions in the host country strengthen the ability of migrants to increase their employment and earnings prospects, which puts them in a better position to remit more money home. Similarly, during periods of recessions at home, migrants may be compelled to increase remittances in a bid to mitigate the adverse effects of the negative economic shocks at home.
Jadhav (2003) analyses the determinants of workers' remittances to India using a log-linear regression specification involving oil prices, US GDP, interest rate differential measured as the difference between nominal domestic interest rate and LIBOR, and exchange rate depreciation as explanatory variables. The empirical results show that oil prices and exchange rate depreciation positively impact on remittance flows to India. Similarly, Gupta (2005) in an attempt to analyze a more complete model to unearth the determinants of remittance flows to India by including a trend, number of migrants, changes in country rating, and return on domestic stock market finds that, in India, the main determinants of remittances are migration, gross migrant earnings, and economic environment in migrant resident country.
Swamy (1981) and Adams and Page (2005) prove a significant relationship between remittance inflows the number of migrants abroad and the distance between the source country and the remittance-receiving country. In particular, Adams and Page (2005) discover that the distance between the host and the home countries of migrants hurts both migration and remittances because long distances make it expensive and unattractive to maintain strong economic and socialites. Also, the personal characteristics of a migrant, especially the level of education which directly impacts on migrant earnings, determine the volume of remittances. As Freund and Spatafora (2005) and Adenutsi et al (2011) studies designate financial markets and institutions' developments have a positive impact on determining the remittance inflows that flow through official channels.
Russell (1986) and Chipeta and Kachaka (2005) find that the decision to remit depends on different factors over the business cycle rather than the altruistic motive of smoothing the consumption of recipients. In an empirical study on Malawi, Chipeta, and Kachaka (2005) find that the flow of remittances across international borders depends on interest rate differentials of the home country and the main host country of migrants, the rate of inflation, the level of economic activity in the host country, and the exchange rate in the home country. In the case of Ghana, Adenutsi and Ahortor (2008) find that, in static and dynamic terms, monetary aggregates and policy interest rates positively impact on remittance inflows, while increases in domestic price levels inhibit the inflow of remittances. The exchange rate is a positive determinant of remittances in a static model but its impact is negative in a dynamic setting (Adenutsi and Ahortor, 2008).
Adenutsi et al (2011) by applying Panel data of the 36 SSA countries over the scanning period of 1980-2009 found that from the overall analysis of home-country income, host-country income, rate of inflation, real exchange rate, bank credit to the private sector, real deposit interest rate, institutional quality and a dummy for post-September 11, 2001 explained significant proportions of the total variations in remittances received in SSA.
Monirul (2010) investigated the macroeconomic determinants of remittance inflow in Bangladesh. The paper concludes that macroeconomic factors of home and host countries have a significant impact on remittances. Inflation rates of Bangladesh have a negative relationship with remittance inflow. Interest rates and exchange rates have a positive relationship with remittance. The host country's GDP also shows a positive relationship with remittance.
Mthuli and Zuzana (2013) examine macroeconomic trends, drivers, and impact of remittances in Africa. In the case of drivers of remittance at the macro level in the recipient countries, such as the level of income, inflation, and nominal exchange rate depreciation drives remittance. Specifically, remittances are positively impacted by higher income, but deterred by an unstable macroeconomic environment, pointing to the investment motive in remitting to Africa. Additionally, the paper finds that in the case of Egypt, remittance increment has a positive effect on public debt sustainability.
Methodology of the study
Data Sources: the study uses secondary data sources from the World Bank Data Index.
Model Specification
Estimation Method
The paper used an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to estimate the long-run and short-run results. To know the behavior of the variables in the model, the paper used by Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, before applying the original model.
The Autoregressive distributed lag Model (ARDL)
This paper analyzes by employing the ARDL bounds test, which is a dynamic model in which the effect of the regressor’s Xs on Y, occurs over time rather than all at once. The autoregressive distributed lag model has the advantage of applying a single equation to specify the long-run relationship of the variables simply.
The ARDL approach to cointegration (See Pesaran et al.2001) entails estimating the error correction model (ECM) version of the ARDL model for the determinants of remittance inflow:
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Where;
Yt dependent variable; is the remittance flows and explanatory variables are GDPD- which is the Gross domestic product of the domestic country, INF- is the domestic inflation, SR- is the saving rate, GS- is government stability, EXRP is the premium market, INVP- Investment profile, GDPH- is the gross domestic country of the host countries where the remittance outflows.
term (ECT).
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The error correction model is defined as:
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Hypothesis test
Null hypothesis it indicates there is no convergence to its long-run dynamics
Against
Alternative hypothesis there is a long-run relationship between the dependent variable and exogenous variables.
Test of Data
This paper applies the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check the stationarity of the variables, ARDL bounds testing for the co-integration test, Jarque and Bera (JB) to test the normality of the residuals, Breusch-Godfrey Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test to check serial autocorrelation, white noise test, to check heteroscedasticity.
Discussion and Analysis
Trends of Remittance in Ethiopia
The performance of the remittance inflows to Ethiopia for the past decades varies by registration increasing most of the time. The actual figure indicates that remittance inflow once increased, but one time it decreased, they have not constantly decreased or increased. The volume of the remittance inflows to Ethiopia in 1980 was 12.2 million USD and it has a 0.2 percentage share of GDP. In 2004, it reached 133.7 million USD and it is 1.3 percent of GDP. In 2014, remittance flows to Ethiopia reached 1.8 billion USD and it was the highest share in the study time by 3.2 percent of GDP. The volume of the remittance inflow in Ethiopia in 2020 decreased by 77.5 percent from 2014 and it has 0.3 percent to GDP. Generally, as we see from Figure 4.1, the performance of remittance inflow to Ethiopia in the study time we have not enough evidence to say they are increasing from year to year.
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The relationship between Remittance inflow and GDPDG
As we see from the below figure, until 2003 the remittance and economic growth of the country went parallel by having small ups and downs, but after 2003 remittance inflow made higher cyclical variation. By looking only at this trend, we don’t judge the relationship between the variables, it is not a feasible relationship between the two variables.
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Empirical Analysis
Unit Root Test
The stationarity of the variables is checked by the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit test. Inflation stationary at the level and left on all variables in the model are differentiated at first difference. So, it satisfies the assumption of ARDL bound procedures; either the variables are differentiated at level or/ and first difference.
Long Run ARDL Bounds Tests for Co-integration
The study applies the ARDL bound test to check the long-run relationship between the variables and the dynamic of the variables in the short run. The existence of a long-run relationship between the variables is checked by comparing the F-statistics of the unrestricted error correction model with the critical value bounds of the F-statistics. Since F-calculated (As the ARDL bounds test result, F-calculated (6.015), is higher than (4.43) of the critical value at 1 percent level of significance of the upper bound, or the absolute value of t-calculated (-3.891) is less than the absolute critical value (-4.99), these indicates that we have evidence to accept the alternative hypothesis, there are levels of relationship. Meanwhile, it shows there is a relationship in the long run between the variables.
Long Run ARDL Model Estimation and Error Correction Model
As we see from the below Table, the coefficient of error correction term of the given equation has a negative sign as expected and is statistically significant. One period of its lag confirms that the co-integration relationship among the variables is at a 1 percent level of significance. The result indicates that in case of shocks, the remittance inflow of the current period adjusts to its equilibrium by 45.7 percent in the next period.
The result shows that in the long run, all variables except the gross domestic product of the host countries and premium rate have a significant effect on the remittance inflow in Ethiopia, at a 5 % level of significance. The Gross Domestic Product of the domestic has a significant long-run relationship with the remittance inflow, even though its lag difference has a weak negative effect in the short run. In line with this in the long run, a 1% increment of the gross domestic product of the domestic remittance inflow of the country rose by 1.377 percent, and other variables remained constant. Domestic inflation has a positive significant effect and a 1 percent increment of domestic inflation causes a 1.622 percent rise in the remittance inflow to the country when the other variables remain constant. The result supports the (El-Sakka and McNabb, 1999) argument that domestic inflation has a positive effect. It opposes the result of the (Katseli and Glytsos , 1986) argument that domestic inflation hurts remittance flows.
Inflation is the most sensitive variable that affects other macroeconomic variables. This result indicates when domestic inflation increases, the diaspora sends the money to the domestic country, to help his/her families, friends, or organizations to recover from the impact of inflation. And in the short run, domestic inflation has a negative significant effect. In line with this, a one percent rise in domestic inflation causes a 0.466 percent decline in the remittance inflow.
In other cases, the saving rate of the domestic country has a negative significant effect on the remittance inflow to the country. The finding opposes the result of the studyHasan (2008)conducted a time series econometric analysis of the determinants of the remittance inflow in Bangladesh.
A one percent rise of the saving rate causes a decline of the remittance inflow by 3.205 percent, other variables remain constant. This indicates the savings rate in Ethiopia does not stimulate the remittance inflow to the country. Therefore, remittance inflow in Ethiopia is not very responsive to changes in the domestic saving rate. This may be because the saving rate in the host countries are better initiatives to save than in Ethiopia and Diasporas do not send the money to domestic to save rather than to improve the families living.
Government stability of the domestic has a positive significance on the remittance inflow. In line with this, a one percent increment in the government stability of the domestic causes a 5.399 percent increment of the remittance inflow, others remain constant. This finding is consistent with the Aydas et al., (2005) study result worked on a paper to analyze the determinants of workers remittance in Turkey.
The premium market has no significant effect on the remittance inflow, but it has a negative relationship. And the gross domestic product of the host countries has no significant effect on the remittance inflow. This finding supported by Buch and Kuckulenz, (2004) study found that economic growth in the source/host country does not affect the remittance flow. The investment profile of the domestic has a negative significant effect on remittance inflow. A 1 percent rise in the investment profile of the domestic (Ethiopia), causes a 1.213 percent decline of the remittance inflow.
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All variables are logged and Significance is indicated as follows: ***, **, and * for 1%, 5%, and 10% respectively. Standard errors of the Betas are signified in parentheses; D. indicates the first difference operator; L. indicates the lag operator. LD. Lag of the first difference.
Diagnostic Tests
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The study carried out several diagnostic checks which included Serial Brush and Godfrey LM test to check serial correlation, Ramsey’s RESET test to check the functional form of the overall model (omit the variables from the model), Jarque-Bera test to check the normality of the error terms and Heteroscedasticity test to check whether the error terms are constant over a time taken. Generally, as the result indicated in the above Table all of the above diagnostics are satisfied by comparing the probability value at a 5 percent level of significance.
Conclusions and Recommendations
In the long run, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ethiopia has a positive and significant effect, while its lag difference has a weak negative association in the short run. However, the host country's GDP has no direct effect on remittance inflow in both the short and long run. This indicates that the five countries of GDP mentioned in this study do not affect remittance inflow to Ethiopia.
The domestic inflation rate of Ethiopia has a significant positive relationship with remittance inflow in the long run but has a significant negative association in the short run. On the other hand, the premium market has no significant effect on remittance inflow in both the long and short run.
In the long run, the saving rate has a significant negative relationship. The government should manage domestic inflation as it negatively affects remittance inflow in the short run. Moreover, the government should encourage the diaspora to save in domestic by formulating policies on domestic saving rates.
The government stability of Ethiopia has a significant positive effect on remittance inflow in the long run, while it has no effect in the short run. Lastly, the investment profile of Ethiopia has a significant negative effect on the remittance inflow in the study period. The government should focus on increasing government stability and do more to encourage the diaspora to increase remittance inflow.
References
Adams and page. (2005). “Do international migration and remittances reduce poverty in developing countries?”. World Development, 33 (10) , 1645−1669.
World Bank. (2006). Global Economic Prospects: Economic Implications and Migration. Washington DC: World Bank.
Adenutsi and Ahortor. (2008). “Remittances, exchange rate and Monitory policy in Ghana". West African Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, 8(2) , 1-42.
Adenutsi et al . (2011). "The changing impact of the macroeconomic environment and remittance inflows in Sub-Saharan Africa”. Journal of Academic Research in Economics, 3(2) , 136−167.
Arnedo, D. (2005). Migrant Remittances, Shocks and Poverty in Urban Ethiopia: An Analysis of Micro-Level Panel Data. Addis Ababa: Addis Ababa University.
Aydaş et al. (2004). Determinants of workers’ Remittances: The case of Turkey. Ankara: Department of Economics Working Paper 0405, Bilkent University.
Aydas et al. (2005). Determinants of Workers' Remittances: The Case of Turkey", Emerging Markets Finance and Trade. M.E. Sharpe, Inc., 41(3), 53-69.
Borja, K. (2012). International Private Transfers and Labor Participation in El Salvador. Journal of International and Global Economic Studies, 6(2) , 13-31.
Bouhga-Hagbe, J. (2006). Altruism and workers’ remittances: Evidence from selected countries in the Middle East and Central Asia. IMF Working Paper 04/194. Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
Buch and Kuckulenz. (2004). Worker Remittances and Capital Flows to Developing. ZEW Discussion Paper, no. 04-31, Centre for European Economic Research.
Chipeta and Kachaka. (2005). Role of migrants’ remittances in an unstable low-income economy: A case study of Malawi. Zomba: University of Malawi.
De la Bière et al. (2002). "The roles of destination, gender, and household composition in explaining remittances: An analysis of the Dominican Sierra”. Journal of Development Economics, 68, 309−328.
Deodat and Christian. (2021). Macroeconomic Determinants of Remittance Flows to Sub-Saharan Africa. Nairobi, Kenya: Africa Economic Research Consortium.
El-Sakka and McNabb. (1999). “The macroeconomic determinants of emigrant remittances”. World Development, 27(8), 1493−1502.
Emerta et al. (2010, April). International Migration, Remittances and Poverty Alleviation in Ethiopia. Ethiopian Economics Association / Ethiopian Economics Policy Research Institute, Working Paper No 1/ 2010 , pp. 46-92.
Freund and Spatafora. (2005). Remittances: Transaction costs, determinants, and informal flows. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 3704 (September) , 1-42.
Gupta, Pattillo, and Wagh. (2009). 'Impact of Remittances on Poverty and Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa’. World Development, 31(1) , 104–115.
Hasan, M. M. (2008). The macroeconomic determinants of remittances in Bangladesh. MPRA Paper No. 27744.
Jadhav, N. (2003). “Maximizing developmental benefits of migrant remittances: The Indian experience”. Paper presented at the Joint Conference of DfID-World Bank. London, October 9−10.: World Bank.
Julca, A. (2013). Can Immigrant Remittances Support Development Finance? Panoeconomicus, 3, 365-380.
Katseli and Glytsos . (1986). Theoretical and Empirical Determinants of International Labor Mobility: A Greek-German Perspective. CEPR Discussion Paper 148.
Monirul, M. (2010). The macroeconomic determinants of remittance inflow in Bangladesh. MPRA, 72-81.
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Sayan, S. (2006). Business cycles and workers’ remittances: How do migrant workers respond to cyclical movements of GDP at home?”. Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
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Frequently Asked Questions about the Remittance Inflow Study
What is the focus of this study?
This study investigates the macroeconomic determinants of remittance flows into Ethiopia. It aims to identify the key macroeconomic variables that influence the amount of money sent by individuals working abroad back to Ethiopia.
What are remittances, as defined in the study?
Remittances are defined as the transfer of money and goods from individuals or groups living or working outside their home country to their country of origin, intended to support families, friends, or organizations.
What are the potential benefits of remittances for developing countries?
Remittances can increase household income, improve living standards, reduce poverty, finance trade imbalances, and positively affect education and health outcomes.
What theoretical perspectives are used to analyze remittances?
The study mentions two theoretical perspectives: altruism and portfolio choice. The altruistic view suggests remittances increase when the home country experiences negative economic shocks. The portfolio choice theory suggests a direct relationship between remittances and GDP growth.
What macroeconomic variables are considered as potential determinants of remittance inflow?
The study considers Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of both the domestic and host countries, domestic inflation, saving rate, government stability, exchange rate premium market, and investment profile.
What methodology is used in this study?
<The study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to estimate the long-run and short-run relationships between remittance inflow and the identified macroeconomic variables. It also uses the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test to check the stationarity of the variables.
What tests are performed to ensure the reliability of the data?
The study applies the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check the stationarity of the variables, ARDL bounds testing for the co-integration test, Jarque and Bera (JB) to test the normality of the residuals, Breusch-Godfrey Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test to check serial autocorrelation, and white noise test to check heteroscedasticity.
What were some of the key findings regarding remittance trends in Ethiopia?
The study indicates that remittance inflows to Ethiopia have fluctuated over the past few decades, with increases and decreases recorded. While the inflows reached a peak of 1.8 billion USD in 2014, the level significantly decreased in 2020.
What are the long-run and short-run effects of domestic GDP on remittance inflow?
In the long run, an increase in domestic GDP has a positive and significant effect on remittance inflow. However, in the short run, its lag difference has a weak negative association.
What are the long-run and short-run effects of domestic inflation on remittance inflow?
Domestic inflation has a significant positive relationship with remittance inflow in the long run but a significant negative association in the short run.
What are the policy recommendations based on the study's findings?
The government should manage domestic inflation, encourage the diaspora to save in domestic by formulating policies on domestic saving rates, and focus on increasing government stability to encourage increased remittance inflow.
- Quote paper
- Desalegn Emana (Author), 2023, The Macroeconomic Determinants of Inflow of Remittance in Ethiopia, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.hausarbeiten.de/document/1459367