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Go to shop › Politics - Topic: Peace and Conflict, Security

Quo vadis Myanmar’s political governance and its impact on national security and regional stability?

An Intelligence Assessment Report till 2025

Title: Quo vadis Myanmar’s political governance and its impact on national security and regional stability?

Term Paper , 2023 , 26 Pages , Grade: A-

Autor:in: Dr. phil. Mathias Jahn (Author)

Politics - Topic: Peace and Conflict, Security

Excerpt & Details   Look inside the ebook
Summary Excerpt Details

The report seeks to apprise the Intelligence Service Coordinator of the German Federal Chancellery of 1) the trajectory of Myanmar’s (MMR’s) POLITICAL SYSTEM till 2025 and 2) the potential impacts on MMR’s NATIONAL SECURITY and Southeast Asia’s REGIONAL STABILITY.

Excerpt


Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)

  • PURPOSE
  • BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT (BLUF)
  • PRIMER OF CONFLICT CONTEXT & DEVELOPMENTS
  • HYPOTHESES ON MYANMAR's GOVERNANCE
    • IMPACT ON NATIONAL SECURITY & REGIONAL STABILITY
  • SCENARIO PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT
  • REFERENCES

Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)

This report provides an intelligence assessment of Myanmar's political system, its trajectory until 2025, and the potential impacts on national security and regional stability in Southeast Asia. The analysis relies on open-source intelligence (OSINT) indicators and aims to inform the Intelligence Service Coordinator of the German Federal Chancellery.

  • Myanmar's political system and its trajectory until 2025
  • Potential impacts on Myanmar's national security
  • Potential impacts on Southeast Asia's regional stability
  • Analysis of competing hypotheses regarding Myanmar's future political landscape
  • Assessment of risks and challenges posed by the evolving situation in Myanmar

Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)

The report begins by outlining its purpose and presenting a concise bottom line up front (BLUF) statement. This statement, based on a high-confidence analysis of OSINT indicators, suggests that Myanmar's military-led "State Administrative Council" will have established an authoritarian regime by 2025.

The report then delves into the context of the conflict in Myanmar, including the 2021 coup d'état, the ongoing civil war, and the negative impacts on various indicators like the Bertelsmann Transformation Index, the Global Peace Index, and the Fragile States Index.

Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)

Key terms and concepts explored in the report include Myanmar's political system, national security, regional stability, authoritarian regime, civil war, coup d'état, open-source intelligence (OSINT), State Administrative Council, National Unity Government, and the impact on major meta-political, -economical, and -security index rankings and indicators.

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Details

Title
Quo vadis Myanmar’s political governance and its impact on national security and regional stability?
Subtitle
An Intelligence Assessment Report till 2025
College
Nanyang Technological University  (S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS))
Course
Intelligence in Peace & War
Grade
A-
Author
Dr. phil. Mathias Jahn (Author)
Publication Year
2023
Pages
26
Catalog Number
V1359671
ISBN (eBook)
9783346878106
ISBN (Book)
9783346878113
Language
English
Tags
Intelligence Assessment Myanmar Analysis of Competing Hypothesis
Product Safety
GRIN Publishing GmbH
Quote paper
Dr. phil. Mathias Jahn (Author), 2023, Quo vadis Myanmar’s political governance and its impact on national security and regional stability?, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.hausarbeiten.de/document/1359671
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Excerpt from  26  pages
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