The growing tensions in the South China Sea (SCS) as a geopolitical “focal point for confrontation” are supported by recently published press/research articles and a qualitative literature review of 343 SCS-related sources since 2009. In sum, they allow us to identify the main issues in the employment of national power instruments that are at interplay in the SCS power arena among six regional claimant states; namely the “People’s Republic of China” (PRC), “Taiwan”, “Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam” also including non-claimant Indonesia and the U.S. as an external party. Therefore, the paper will apply the DIME-L framework as a conflict-analysis tool to cover a 'Tour d’Horizon' of key causes/drivers of the conflict as well as the attempts to deal with them.
The stipulated essay question addresses the ongoing discourse on the 'Arms Race (AR)' concept in the maritime domain of the vast Indo-Pacific theatre. For the scope of this paper, I will focus on the superpowers U.S. and China due to “numerous headlines” which recently proclaim heightened tensions between them. In particular, at “security flashpoints” like the South/East China Sea (SCS/ECS), the “Korean Peninsula and Taiwan” and with regard to the intensified development of 'Hypersonic Missile Technology (HMT)'. This calls for an update of Till’s decade ago assessment who qualified the U.S.-Chinese instance as “naval modernisation in the region” which “has not yet become a fully-fledged naval arms race” but “clearly has the potential to do so”. To derive the answer for the case study, the paper will suggest an 'Arms Dynamics (AD)' framework to better differentiate the concepts of AR versus 'Arms Competition (AC)' in chapter two and will subsequently discuss and assess the constituting criteria in chapter three.
Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)
- QUESTION 3
- Introduction
- Elucidating the SCS "problematique"
- Diplomacy
- Information
- Economic
- Military & Law Enforcement/Para-Military
- Assessing the risks for FON
- Conclusion
- REFERENCES
- QUESTION 6
- Introduction
- The Arms Dynamics Framework
- Does the U.S.-Chinese case constitute an AR?
- Conclusion
- REFERENCES
Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)
This work examines the growing tensions in the South China Sea (SCS) and its implications for freedom of navigation. It analyzes the interplay of national power instruments employed by various claimant states and the impact of these actions on maritime security. The work further explores the potential for an arms race in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly focusing on the US-Chinese relationship.
- The legal and diplomatic disputes surrounding territorial and economic claims in the SCS
- The role of information warfare in shaping perceptions and influencing actions in the region
- The impact of military activities and deployments on freedom of navigation and regional stability
- The dynamics of power competition and the potential for an arms race in the Indo-Pacific
- The implications of these tensions for international maritime security and regional stability
Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)
- QUESTION 3: Introduction This chapter sets the stage for the analysis of the SCS tensions. It provides a background on the issue, outlining the key actors involved and the primary areas of conflict. It also introduces the DIME-L framework, which will be used to analyze the various drivers of tension.
- QUESTION 3: Elucidating the SCS "problematique" This chapter delves deeper into the underlying causes of tension in the SCS, examining the complexities of diplomatic disputes, information warfare, and economic considerations. It explores how China's assertive claims and actions, particularly regarding its historical "Nine-Dashed Line," have fueled tensions with other claimant states.
- QUESTION 3: Diplomacy This chapter examines the legal complexities surrounding territorial claims in the SCS, focusing on the conflicting interpretations of UNCLOS provisions. It analyzes China's claims and its negotiation style, highlighting the challenges in reaching a mutually agreeable solution. The chapter also explores the implications of the PCA ruling in 2016, which declared China's claims over certain features in the SCS invalid.
- QUESTION 3: Information This chapter explores the role of information warfare in the SCS, analyzing how China utilizes public affairs and diplomacy to influence domestic and international perceptions. It examines China's strategies to counter rival narratives and deter potential adversaries.
Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)
The primary keywords and focus topics of this work include the South China Sea, freedom of navigation, territorial disputes, information warfare, maritime security, arms race, Indo-Pacific region, UNCLOS, and the DIME-L framework.
- Quote paper
- Dr. phil. Mathias Jahn (Author), 2022, Tension is rising in the South China Sea. What are the major issues? Is freedom of navigation at risk?, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.hausarbeiten.de/document/1291685