Since the invention of gun powder, submarines, and airplanes, the continuous technological transformation in the realm of military capability development drives threat perceptions of nations as well as adjustments of strategies for offensive and defensive warfare. Discussed under the technical term “Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA)”, the developments in 'Robotics' continue this trend as shown by the recent supply of U.S. “Phoenix Ghost” robotic kamikaze drones to the Ukraine. In addition, the combination with 'Artificial Intelligence (AI)' would lead to “brilliant weapons systems” capable of operating beyond human control and offering the opportunity to decrease casualty rates U.S. sources suggest that the Chinese armaments industry exported these weapons in 2019 to the Middle East, which cannot rule out that the technology also fell into the hands of terrorists.
These developments set the stage for the presented case study and two research questions for Germany: How will 'AI & Robotics (AI&R)' as 'Independent Variable (IV)' affect
a) the 'National Security (NS)' on the Grand Strategy level ('Dependent Variable = DV'),
b) how wars will be fought on the Military Strategy level (DV)?
Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION
2. GERMANY’S NATIONAL SECURITY
2.1 Concepts of Strategic Studies
2.2 Germany’s Grand Strategy and Military Strategy
3. AI & ROBOTICS
3.1 Definition, Characteristics, German AI Strategy
3.2 Military Use Cases
4. ASSESSMENT OF EFFECTS
4.1 Antecedent Conditions
4.2 Opportunities, Threats, Challenges
5. CONCLUSION
Research Objective and Key Themes
This paper examines how Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (AI&R) impact the national security of Germany, specifically analyzing how these advancements influence its Grand Strategy and the future conduct of military operations.
- Theoretical analysis of National Security, Grand Strategy, and Military Strategy.
- Technical definition and military application scenarios of AI & Robotics.
- Assessment of security dilemmas and armaments dynamics in the context of technological change.
- Evaluation of opportunities, threats, and challenges posed by emerging autonomous weapon systems.
- Analysis of the German constitutional and political framework regarding legal and ethical military conduct.
Excerpt from the Book
3.2 Military Use Cases
a) Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS)
Its main characteristic is the capability to operate and use deadly force during the “targeting cycle” without any “manual human control” over the system (CRS, 2020, p. 15, Sauer, 2018, p. 1). Sauer (2018, p. 1) argues that Germany already possesses LAWS in terms of the stationary PATRIOT surface-to-air missile defense system because of its ability to autonomously “find, fix, track, target, engage” and “assess” “(F2T2EA)” enemy missiles as lifeless objects. Therefore, the differentiation criteria for the future should not be the autonomy of the system but rather its application to mobile (micro)drones, airplanes, land vehicles, and ships, which could lead to the scenario that battles between tanks, fighter jets, and naval vessels as well as attacks on living subjects (e.g., soldiers) would be conducted autonomously (Sauer, 2018, CRS, 2020).
b) Swarming Capability
In addition, AI&R could enable the coordination of maneuvers and actions of larger quantities of LAWS or nonlethal robots. The concept would offer the ability to completely oversaturate the defense capacities of the adversary and contribute to their breach. Moreover, when operating in smaller formations of “loyal wingmen”, these drones could cooperate in providing logistics, “intelligence”, “reconnaissance”, “surveillance” (ISR), “fire support”, “electronic attack”, and 'Improvised Explosive Device' removal (CRS, 2020, pp. 10, 11, 14, 30). Though the classified nature of current GAF projects, the Federal Ministry of Defence reported to the German Parliament that several research projects address connecting manned and unmanned aircraft coined „Manned-Unmanned-Teaming“ (MUM-T, Deutscher Bundestag, 2021, p. 4). Furthermore, the German Army Concepts and Capabilities Development Centre (GACCDC) did release a position paper in which the demand for procuring swarms of “Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems (TUAS)” was already articulated (GACCDC, 2019, p. 4).
Summary of Chapters
1. INTRODUCTION: This chapter introduces the technological transformation of military capabilities and sets the research questions concerning the impact of AI & Robotics on German National and Military Strategy.
2. GERMANY’S NATIONAL SECURITY: This chapter defines key theoretical concepts like Strategic Studies, Grand Strategy, and Military Strategy, and applies them to the current German security framework.
3. AI & ROBOTICS: This chapter provides a definition of AI & Robotics and investigates specific military use cases such as Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems and swarm capabilities.
4. ASSESSMENT OF EFFECTS: This chapter evaluates the antecedent conditions of technological change, such as security dilemmas, and analyzes the resulting opportunities, threats, and challenges for Germany.
5. CONCLUSION: The final chapter summarizes the findings, addressing how AI&R affects German strategic objectives and highlighting the need for future ethical and legal debates.
Keywords
Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, National Security, Grand Strategy, Military Strategy, Germany, Revolution in Military Affairs, Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems, Swarming, Cyber warfare, Security Dilemma, Armaments Dynamics, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, Defence Policy
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fundamental focus of this research paper?
The paper evaluates the influence of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics on the national security of Germany and explores how these technologies shape contemporary and future military strategies.
What are the primary thematic areas covered in the analysis?
The study covers the intersection of strategic studies, German security policy, the technical aspects of AI & Robotics in defense, and the geopolitical implications of autonomous warfare.
What is the central research question guiding the study?
The core inquiry focuses on how AI & Robotics act as an independent variable affecting Germany's national security at the Grand Strategy level and how they transform the actual conduct of warfare at the Military Strategy level.
Which scientific methods are utilized in this work?
The paper employs a case study method, utilizing theoretical lenses from Strategic Studies, such as the Security Dilemma and the Arms Dynamics concept, to assess the impact of technological variables.
What topics are discussed in the main body of the work?
The main body examines the theoretical framework of strategic concepts, examines specific military use cases like swarming and automated image recognition, and evaluates internal and external conditions impacting security policies.
Which keywords best characterize this academic work?
The work is defined by terms such as artificial intelligence, robotic weapons, German security strategy, hybrid warfare, and modern armaments dynamics.
How does Germany perceive the threat of AI in the cyber domain?
Germany views AI-enhanced cyber threats and the proliferation of autonomous capabilities as significant risks that necessitate stronger research, development, and strategic coordination within the government.
What is the 'responsibility gap' mentioned in the conclusion?
The responsibility gap refers to the ethical and legal challenge of determining accountability when autonomous weapon systems make life-or-death decisions without direct human control.
Does the author suggest that Germany's constitutional military principles will change due to AI?
No, the author argues that while technological capabilities grow, the existing constitutional principles of the German Armed Forces will remain central, serving as an important ethical corrective.
- Quote paper
- Dr. phil. Mathias Jahn (Author), 2022, How will Artificial Intelligence and Robotics affect the national security of nations and the ways they will fight their wars?, Munich, GRIN Verlag, https://www.hausarbeiten.de/document/1291682
