An Analysis of the Effect of Ideology on the Life Expectancy of Terrorist Organisations

This thesis investigates the effect of ideology on the survival times of 557 terrorist organisations. While there is broad acceptance of the view that the majority of terrorist organisations are short-lived, quantitative studies of the life spans of terrorist organisations are rare. Terrorist organisations go to great lengths to ensure their survival, with many terrorist organisations viewing their continued existence as a victory in itself. Within the broader field of organisational analysis, an organisation’s age is viewed as a key variable in explaining the development of its structures, functions, and, most importantly, its likelihood of continued survival. The ideology through which a terrorist organisation views the world is thought by many scholars of terrorism to play an important role in its justification for violence, its strategic intentions, the targets it selects, and its survival prospects. While many typologies of terrorist ideologies have been proposed, one of the most common approaches uses four broad categories of ideological orientation: Separatist/nationalist, left-wing, religious, and right-wing. Separatist/nationalist organisations are widely believed to have much greater longevity than organisations that lack a distinct, territorially bounded, ethno-nationalist base. The non-parametric and semi-parametric statistical analyses of the life spans of 557 terrorist groups presented in this thesis are complemented by a description of various stage-based life cycle models. The concept of an organisational life cycle is used to highlight and explain some of the frequently observed patterns and behaviours of terrorist organisations as they form, grow, peak, fragment, and fail. This provides the contextual background to the quantitative analysis. This thesis emphasises a longitudinal approach to understanding terrorist organisations.

Inhaltsverzeichnis (Table of Contents)

• 1. INTRODUCTION
• 2. LITERATURE REVIEW
  • 2.1 The Organisational Life Cycle
  • 2.2 The Organisational Life Span
• 3. TERRORISM THROUGH AN OPEN SYSTEMS FRAMEWORK
  • 3.1 The Organisation as a Machine
  • 3.2 The Organisation as an Organism
  • 3.3 General Systems Theory: Organisations as Open Systems
  • 3.4 Terrorist Organisations as Open Systems
  • 3.5 Open Systems and Organisational Longevity
• 4. TERRORISM AS AN EXTENSION OF POLITICS
  • 4.1 Terrorist Organisations as Specialised Political Parties
  • 4.2 An Ideological Taxonomy of Terrorist Organisations
    • 4.2.1 Separatist/nationalist Terrorist Organisations
    • 4.2.2 Left-wing Terrorist Organisations
    • 4.2.3 Religious Terrorist Organisations
    • 4.2.4 Right-wing Terrorist Organisations
  • 4.3 A Structural Taxonomy of Terrorist Organisations
    • 4.3.1 Hierarchical Terrorist Organisations
    • 4.3.2 Flattening the Hierarchy: Terrorist Networks
    • 4.3.3 Hybrids: The Real World of Organisational Structures
• 5. THE LIFE CYCLES OF TERRORIST ORGANISATIONS
  • 5.1 Organisational Life Cycles and the Biological Metaphor
  • 5.2 Empirical Evidence for Organisational Life Cycles
  • 5.3 A Generic Five-Stage Model of an Organisational Life Cycle
    • 5.3.1 Start-up
    • 5.3.2 Growth
    • 5.3.3 Consolidation
    • 5.3.4 Diversification
    • 5.3.5 Decline
  • 5.4 Life Cycle Models of Terrorist Organisations
    • 5.4.1 Formation
    • 5.4.2 Growth
    • 5.4.3 Adapting
    • 5.4.4 Decline
  • 5.5 Hawks and Doves: An Abridged Life Cycle Model
  • 5.6 Organisational Size
    • 5.6.1 Organisational Size and Growth

Zielsetzung und Themenschwerpunkte (Objectives and Key Themes)

This thesis explores the impact of ideology on the longevity of terrorist organizations. It seeks to contribute to the understanding of terrorist organizations as open systems and the significance of ideology in shaping their survival strategies.

• The impact of ideology on the longevity of terrorist organizations.
• The use of statistical analysis to investigate the life spans of terrorist organizations.
• The application of organizational life cycle models to understand the dynamics of terrorist organizations.
• The role of ideology in shaping the strategic intentions and survival prospects of terrorist organizations.
• The comparison of life expectancy across different ideological orientations of terrorist organizations.

Zusammenfassung der Kapitel (Chapter Summaries)

• Chapter 1: Introduction This chapter provides an overview of the research question and the rationale behind the study. It highlights the limited quantitative research on the life spans of terrorist organizations and emphasizes the significance of ideology in understanding their survival prospects.
• Chapter 2: Literature Review This chapter delves into existing literature on the organizational life cycle and organizational lifespan, providing theoretical foundations for the study. It explores relevant concepts from organizational theory and examines the importance of organizational longevity in the broader context of organizational analysis.
• Chapter 3: Terrorism Through an Open Systems Framework This chapter examines terrorist organizations through the lens of open systems theory. It explores how terrorist organizations interact with their environments and how this interplay influences their structure, function, and survival. The chapter also discusses the application of open systems concepts to understand the longevity of terrorist organizations.
• Chapter 4: Terrorism as an Extension of Politics This chapter investigates the political nature of terrorism and examines the role of ideology in shaping the goals and strategies of terrorist organizations. It provides a detailed taxonomy of terrorist ideologies, including separatist/nationalist, left-wing, religious, and right-wing orientations, and explores the structural variations of terrorist organizations.
• Chapter 5: The Life Cycles of Terrorist Organisations This chapter delves into the concept of organizational life cycles and applies these models to understand the dynamics of terrorist organizations. It explores the different stages of an organization's life, from formation and growth to decline, and discusses the factors that contribute to each stage. It also examines the relevance of organizational size and the interplay of internal power dynamics within terrorist organizations.

Schlüsselwörter (Keywords)

This study focuses on the life expectancy of terrorist organizations, exploring the influence of ideological orientation on their survival prospects. Key terms include terrorism, ideology, life span, organizational life cycle, open systems theory, separatist/nationalist, left-wing, religious, right-wing, and quantitative analysis. The study utilizes empirical data to investigate the relationship between ideology and the longevity of terrorist organizations.

Details

• Course: Master of Engineering (systems engineering)
• Grade: Passed
• Author: Tony Wragg (Author)
• Publication Year: 2008
• Pages: 142
• Catalog Number: V116242
• ISBN (eBook): 9783640181810
• ISBN (Book): 9783640181995
• Language: English
• Tags: Analysis Effect Ideology Life Expectancy Terrorist Organisations Master Engineering